March 8, 2025
Six Flags & United Parks Earnings: Optimism or Trouble?
Six Flags reported a $206 million net loss for 2024—but investors are cautiously optimistic.
Six Flags reported a $206 million net loss for 2024—but investors are cautiously optimistic. Meanwhile, United Parks is blaming hurricanes for its flat revenue and attendance, but is it really the weather, or is there a deeper issue? This week, we break down earnings reports from Six Flags and United Parks, analyzing the good, the bad, and the uncertain. Six Flags is growing attendance and spending, but merger costs, debt, and operating expenses are eating into profits. Meanwhile, United Parks is downplaying Epic Universe’s impact—but with no major IP announcements and vague growth plans, analysts aren’t convinced.
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From our studios this week in Houston and Los Angeles.
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This is Green Tag Theme Park and thirty and this
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week we're going to talk about the latest earnings reports
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from six Flags and United Parks, which I would say
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have me somewhat cautiously optimistic, which is probably for me
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a good thing.
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I was going to say, for you, No, for you,
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that's a stellar thing for you. Now I'm concerned because
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that could be, you know, like the seventh sign of
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the apocalypse, Philip.
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It's right, Or maybe I just had a stroke from
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this last weekend at Transworld. Who knows.
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That's true. That's possible too, That's possible.
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So we are. Scott and I just got back from
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this year's TRANSORLTS Halloween Attraction Show, which is the largest
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Halloween trade show in the world, and as well as.
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Talking about this and interactive interactive entertainment and it's I.
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Don't know if it's the largest Christmas show maybe no,
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but it's.
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Cool located, so it's a pretty big show.
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It's a pretty big show. So we're going to talk
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about that probably on the Unhinged episode, because we'll be
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this will be, this will be earning. So for those
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that have won.
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That if you if you've been watching the Internet at
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all and you're interested in Halloween at all, you've probably
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seen more posts than you could possibly stomach about the show,
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because like, I can't go through any of my social
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media without just post after post after post of all
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the stuff from the show. So we're gonna get unhinged
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about that and uh and talk about it in greater detail.
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But anyway, sorry I keep interrupting you. I haven't done that,
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So I'm literally.
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That will be on our Patreon. You can go to
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Patreon and just searched green tagged, or look at the
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link in our show notes for that Patreon link. So, okay,
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let's begin with six Flags. So the headline here that
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had the stock market initially tumbling on this news was
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that six Flags reported a two hundred and six million
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net loss in twenty twenty four after the merger, And
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of course, the big thing was supposed to be the
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merger was going to say money and make money, and
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they report a loss, so that caused the initial stock
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to fall. However, ultimately the stock did climb two percent
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because the CEO outlined the reasons why it happened and
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their plans and his expectation that they're going to have
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a two percent increase in attendance and a three percent
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rise in season pass sales, which now that they're a
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much bigger company, is a big deal. So that's the
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gist of it. That's the nutshell. We're going to dig
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into a little bit give you a little bit more context.
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But basically, I think if you just read the headlines,
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you might have been maybe misled by that. You know,
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it really isn't as bad I think as the headline suggest.
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So first of all, how is it performing. So overall
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attendance is up, and just to clarify, what we're doing
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here is looking at we're comparing the total numbers like
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merged with the numbers unmerged, and so basically we're trying
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to make this apples to apples, looking at what it
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was last year unmerged, and then what we're looking at
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this year with the merge numbers, and it's roughly a
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three percent increase over twenty twenty three. So basically, attendance
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is up, revenue is also up, and guest spending is steady,
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if not slightly up a little bit maybe two percent
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at some of the parks. So that's a pretty good
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picture where they have attendants up, they do have revenue up,
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so things are going in the right direction overall when
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you look at them, even after you kind of convert
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everything over into the thing. Because the merger member happened
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in July, and so essentially this the numbers we're seen
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are like basically jumping from like January through the end.
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It seems like there's a big jump because that's when
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they started reporting combined together. So it still did lose money.
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So why did it lose money?
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So I was just going to say, is how does
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this translate into the two hundred and six million loss
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for twenty ee Yeah, exactly as to Apples.
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That's a great question. And basically merger related costs. I know,
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Scott's like, it's almost like we had a script. So
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merger related costs or a big part of it. You know,
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they had legal fees, integration costs, et cetera. They did
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a big non cash UH tax charge that happened in
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Q four as well. They also had higher operating costs,
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you know initially and they did warn us about this,
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but of course initially it means labor, maintenance, operational costs,
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all that comes in, Uh, they did have the merger
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did add debt because they took on a debt which
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increased their interest payments for that. So all of those
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finan all of those financial costs, basically, like the financing
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costs is what really ate into their profit. And it's
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it's also bid to note there that like even though
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the Halloween events were strong, there was like higher cost
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that went out, you know for that kind of stuff.
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So you saw a lot of finances. So the initial reaction,
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as I said, was that it dipped but slightly ended
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up on a high note. However, there were some detractors
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out there, JP Morgan being the main one that pointed
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out that the fourth quarter IBITA was thirty percent lower
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than the Wall Street had actually anticipated. So kind of
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like basically it's mixed, right. So you have some people
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who are like, oh, you know, I buy into the
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future of that he's painting, and you have other analysts
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that are saying right, but essentially what the CEO is saying,
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which is saying about how you know, as soon as
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we control costs all blah, He's like, that's the best
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case scenario, Like, you know, the best case scenario is
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that you're able to entirely control for these costs and
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you're able to drive attendance and all that. And so
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the detractors here say that they missed their Wall Street
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anticipated EBITDA marker and that everything has to go perfectly
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basically for this vision to come true. But I guess
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the the hope one out in this because the stock
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ended up going up. So you know, as I mentioned
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some of the risk factors they're going to have, like
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essentially it is it is still a difficult path, right
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because despite the fact they're growing attendance, they still have
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to regrow it without loot without a writing their price
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and power too much, and he did they did hint
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to that later about really trying to bring in more
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people and increase their That might cause their their overall
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you know, price per guest to go down because they're
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going to have to be doing some discounts for people in.
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But that's tricky, right, you don't want to road your
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price and power too much, or it's going to have
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long term consequence, especially when you lay it out over
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forty parks, right, it's gonna They do now have a
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higher cost base because of course they've integrated all this
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stuff together and they are trying you know, again, this
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whole synergy is quote unquote synergyes thing. Right. They set
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one hundred and twenty million in savings, but so far
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they've only managed to bring out fifty So you know,
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how long until that comes across and can they balance
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all these different plates at the same time. So basically
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bottom line is like the company is making more money
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with increasing into spending, but it's also spending even more
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due to merger related costs. And then in twenty twenty five,
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remember that they're going to invest one point one billion
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or they're going to invest in I think eleven out
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of the fourteen parks or whatnot. So they're like investing
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as well, you know, in this coming season, and a
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lot also rests on Halloween. You know, they call that
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out specifically, saying our strong fourth quarter results reflecting outstanding
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October performance and the incredibly popularity of fall and Halloween
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themed events. So basically, if they can turn that revenue
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growth into actual profits once the merger settles and they
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really bring up those synergies and they don't erode their
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pricing too much, you know, with trying to get an
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additional guess, you know, and they roll out a good
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Halloween and and and and than they could be in
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a really good position, which is what he is painting.
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So that's where they are.
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And in fairness, I mean, let's let's kind of even
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break those down a little bit. When you've got the
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merger related costs. The merger related expenses, that's a one
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time thing. They knew that was coming. That's not a surprise,
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that's not any that does not reflect badly on any
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of the business decisions that they have made, because the
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merger itself they knew going into it had merger related expenses.
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So so there's that, and and that will that, like
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I said, one time thing. That's not a that's not
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a oh crap, look we we found more merger expenses. No,
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that's not going to happen. It's not gonna happen. So
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we have to keep sure make sure they don't say
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that in the next reporting of the of the finances.
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I think that you know, if they are we talk
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about the synergy, the synergy savings, Well, again, when you're
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talking about a company that is now this large, those
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synergy savings are not going to happen overnight.
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Yep.
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It's more like it's more like turning an aircraft carrier
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than turning a speedboat. It's gonna you're gonna need a
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little runway to do it. So it does not surprise
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me that those they have not reached their their synergy
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savings goals. And you know, it's it's been less than
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a year. So it's not really even fair to to
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expect that that you're gonna start seeing that. It shows.
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What it shows me is it's on track. You know
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it's not. It's not there, but it's it's heading in
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the right direction. So and I and I also you
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know it's they I can't tell you how many parks
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I have worked with or how many projects I have
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worked on where they say, well, Halloween is going to
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make or breakers. It's it's that's always the fallback. And
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it's partially because of when it happens in the year,
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and it's partially because they know most most organizations can't
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squeeze any more out of Christmas, so they always put
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it on Halloween and say because quite honestly, Halloween has
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less financial competition from a from a customer standpoint. People
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have you know when when when the Christmas season rolls around.
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There's Christmas travel, there's Christmas shopping, there's Christmas you know,
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all Christmas parties. There's all kinds of of of competition
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for the dollar at the Christmas season. And so they
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know it's more difficult to grow to grow income during
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the holiday, during the Christmas season or the holiday season
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than it is the Halloween season. And quite honestly, Flags,
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no matter how you feel about their Halloween product or
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even Cedar Fair, no matter how you feel about their
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Halloween product, whether you think it's the best things of
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slice bread or you think it's absolute garbage, it doesn't
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matter because it's been pretty successful. I mean, it's continued
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to make money, you know. So the fact that they're
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just saying, well, we've got to make sure that that continues, well, yeah,
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the chances of that are pretty slim that it's gonna
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just magically not make money anymore. What could hurt them?
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What could hurt them as if some and I hope
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this doesn't happen, but if some catastrophic experience or event
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happened that created either a lawsuit or a giant insurance claim,
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that could be detrimental. So I think they're putting that
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out there as just in case. So it sounds like,
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you know, since since we're all saying kind of the
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same thing, it sounds like the investors agree with us,
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and certainly those who know the industry are looking at
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it going, yeah, they're probably painting a pretty realistic picture.
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You know, it's positive, but it's but it's it's realistically positive.
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It's not right, you know, it's not out of the
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realm of possibility by any stretch of the imagination.
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I yeah, yes, I I agree with that it's not
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the own possibility. But I do like the angle that
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some of the analysts, you know, they're not industry folks,
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but I think they kind of are correct in that
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they're like the problem with this scenario that he's painting
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is that it's the best case scenario. And you know,
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you always say like it never goes according to plan,
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and you know, like in this there's nothing about there,
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like there's no room for failure, basically, like everything has
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to go right, Like, you know, they have to realize
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the full synergy. They have to make sure Halloween hits
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off well, they have to not lose have a dip
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in attendance, they have to not have a dip in
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too much of a dip in per cap spending as
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long as they increase in attendance. But if they don't
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increase attendance, they need to hire per caps. Like everything
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has to go right in order to get there, because
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even if they had the extra you know whatever, one
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hundred and million, that still would not make up for
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the loss. And so they do. They need everything to
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go right. And you know what about weather.
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You know, it's so in other words, it's exactly the
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same as every other earnings report we've talked about. No
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