Six Flags Q3: Same-Park Revenue Up 1.4%, Debt Still 5.8x

0:01 Alrighty, from our studios in Los Angeles and Tampa, this is Green Tagged Theme Park in 30. I'm Philip and I'm joined as always by my delightful co-host Scott Swenson of Scott Swenson Creative Development. Here on Green Tagged, we look at the top news each week and we try and pick the stories we think matter most to industry professionals, give some takeaways, give some opinions, and really just start conversation and discussion. And this week we're going to talk about the earnings calls from Six Flags, but I think we'll try and make it a little bit more about takeaways and kind of the the macro trends that we're seeing in these earnings calls. Yeah. And I think it's important to recognize that we are trying to, we will kind of try to focus on these macro trends because in the last show we had tons of online commentary and we, we certainly appreciate that.

0:44 That was kind of the intent of when we started this over five years ago. God, it's been a long time, but it's, it's one of those, it's one of those, we're one of those shows that we don't pretend to know everything. We, you know, we've got between the two of us, we have well over 50 years of theme park experience. And we're just sharing our perspectives. And the purpose for doing that is to get you guys to talk about it in real time, to get you guys to think about, is this thing that they're talking about, how does it impact me? Does it impact me? You know, we've always said we are not necessarily a fan person podcast, but I know we got a lot of fan people out there who listen and we love that. But what we really want to make sure is happening is people are starting conversations, having conversations, and continuing to explore and dig deeper. We don't have internal facts about much of anything.

1:37 So keep that in mind when you're listening to the show is that we're sharing with you the public knowledge that we have, plus our insight based on our years of experience within the industry. So please continue to comment because we absolutely love it. That's why we do the show. At the same time, please don't be upset if we don't necessarily respond directly to your comments, but hopefully somebody else on the, on the chat will, because we've seen that happen many times that somebody else will fill in some information and some additional details. So, um, thank you for listening and thank you for commenting. I just wanted to start there because there were a bunch on the last show and many of them very, very complimentary. So thank you very much. We really appreciate it. Right.

2:21 Well, let us to the earnings then for six flags. And I think, uh, I always dig way too much and then kind of resurface. And I think. This might be a hot take, but my impression is that these earnings are actually pretty good. And I think Wall Street also agrees because the stock did pretty good. It's a little bit better than Wall Street was expecting. But on a macro level, they're pretty good. I think the problem is they would have been better if it weren't for some of the recent incidents, which we have covered extensively on the show. And that's, that's the real rub here is that things were kind of going the right direction, but then you had these safety incidents, which, and, and they really did have some bad weather again. Uh, so the October numbers, October 10th fell 9%, right. Which was weather was a big issue in that plus the Goliath incidents, et cetera. So that was a big kind of drag on them, but I think overall the stuff is going the right direction. So to me, this is still the same story, actually. It's just we're getting more plot lines on this plot. And it's the same story of they are really doubling down on the passes, bringing people back, and then the regional strategy, getting people to visit multiple parks in the same pass, and getting people to upgrade to that pass, and they come back multiple times.

3:48 So they're investing in that. And then it seems to be working, except they still have a lot of debt. And then you have this safety incident where they had to close nine of the posters on chain wide and it's causing that dip. So I think it's like there, that was a pretty big, I don't want to say speed bump, but it's kind of like a pretty big derailment maybe in, in there trying to course correct. But it looks like the overall strategy is the same we've talked about and it's pretty sound. And it's really just a time clock of they have this debt. They need to de-lever in order to de-lever, they have to sell assets, which means they have to organize buyers and get that figured out. And then they sort of need to keep on the strategy. And they did mention all of this in the earnings. They talked about the, I think, the more solidly, more solid plans of selling some of the parks.

4:40 A little new details yet, of course, but those plans. But that's the overall thing. I can give you all some numbers for context. But basically, I just also want to clarify. You may have seen some numbers from major news outlets that are saying that revenue fell 11% or those kinds of things. That's not really accurate because of course we know that Six Flags sold eight parks earlier this year. And so I think when we are looking for this show, we're looking at the takeaways. What we're doing is comparing the park to park. So we're looking at like, okay, they have 34 parks that they're operating now and looking at those same 34 parks last year and how are they comparing? I think that's what we're looking at were kind of taking out the eight that they sold because that kind of skews all the numbers, right?

5:32 So looking at that, their attendance was relatively flat and the revenue was up about 1.4%. And for the year so far, attendance is up 1.5%, revenue is up 3%. So that's why I'm saying on its surface, it looks kind of like mild news, kind of like cold soup news, right? Attendance flat and revenue up maybe 1.5%. But underlying that is my point about how the October had such a big shock. There was a 9% drop in the October. So even absorbing that shock, this is where they are. And I think that's why Wall Street rewarded them slightly because I think people were thinking it was going to be a lot worse than it was because they had to close so many of their rides.

6:15 But that's my initial take, Scott. And to kind of reinforce that, I did just a little bit of quick napkin math here. And so, you know, they, with the 11%, the revenue revenue, keep in mind that is revenue. That is not profit. That is revenue. Revenue fell 11%, but they sold 17.7, 17.07% of their total parks. So if you take those numbers and put them together, you're right, Philip, it is a more positive picture than some of the larger news outlets are trying to, trying to paint. Um, you know, when you, when you get rid of, of, 17% I'm going to get rid of the 0.07 when you get rid of 17% of your parks and your revenue falls by 11%. Right. That's a, that's a good picture. That's not a negative picture. That's actually a good picture. But again, people are less likely to read news about good stories. So we'll see. The other thing that I think is that you mentioned, and I just want to reinforce is in the theme park industry through the years, um, What I've seen is the most successful is when you take the time to put together a long-term plan and stick to it and don't just change every time the breeze changes. And it looks like, not sure, again, don't work for Six Flags, but it looks like that's what Six Flags is doing. It looks like they have a plan. They are enacting it. Yes, Goliath and safety issues were a huge speed bump, stumbling block,

7:49 whatever you want to put it. But certainly... Let's at least phrase it as an unexpected hindrance. But it didn't change their overall perspective. They had to deal with it, obviously, and keep moving forward with their plan. So I just wanted to kind of reinforce and put things into perspective here. When you sell off 17% of your parks and your revenue is down 11%, that makes sense. And it's not actually a bad number at all. So. just throwing that out there to make sure we understand what that means. Right. And it seems like the plan isn't really changed that much. Although that's the other thing, right? They had to dedicate a lot, not had to, but I think it was really appropriate for them to begin with their, with condolences. And also it was appropriate to spend so much of the call on safety. I think that was appropriate in this moment because of course that's the big drag from the October moment. So it's also possible that maybe they had more plans, but they kind of did not, focus on that because they wanted to clear up the safety and reinforce that portion.

8:57 That could also be it. But essentially, it's. Unchanged from what we talked about previously, where they are working to increase their passholder visitation and also increase the amount of people that are moving up into regional passes. And they're doing that by adding in more entertainment and cleaning up services, etc. And then they are looking to actively sell parts of their portfolio before They had used more loose language about the portfolio, but it sounds like they've shifted because now they're moving more into, these are concrete discussions that are happening. Of course, we knew that because there's no other way to do it, right? You got to de-lever. You just have to de-lever. So it's sort of like, you got to do it. But it seems like this earnings call, they moved more into emphasizing those word discussions that are currently underway.

9:46 So that's what's going to happen. And it does seem like they're, pass holder system is working, right? It started in early 27, started early August and, or it started in 2017. and it looks like they're, they're moving up there about three points moved from single day tickets to passes and memberships. So about three percent, three percentage of those moved up. So it looks like all those numbers are going in the right direction and it's, Also interesting, he said cross-park visits are running about 5x last year's level, and that is the network working, and we're just getting started.

10:31 That was the CEO. So 5x is the previous level. So it does look like the network effect he's talking about seems to be working and encouraging people to come back multiple times. And the other thing I wanted to point out in terms of takeaways slash big trends here is It's always interesting to me the order in which they do everything. So the day before the earnings on Wednesday, they announced all their holiday event slates and their Black Friday deals, which seems to be exactly aimed at that segment of reminding people that have passes, why they have passes, and also trying to encourage people to move from maybe a single park pass up to multi-park pass.

11:15 And then the earnings came the day after that. Right? So it's kind of, they preempted it with a lot of this encouragement and the things that was most interesting to me about this, they have a lot of deals they're trying, but it also looks like they're renovating a lot of their holiday events, particularly that they're adding new live shows to holiday in the park at magic mountain. And they're also adding a new, I show the Snoopy's Christmas follies to knots. So to me, this is like, a little microcosm of the battle that they're trying to do where they're adding live entertainment to two parks that are within driving distance that could be covered by the same regional pass. And that seems to me to be a pretty clear play in that market of, you know, trying to encourage those people to upgrade in. And then you have two parks you can go to and they both have new entertainment for Christmas. So it's a perfect reason to visit, right? Yeah.

12:08 It's, it's the, it's kind of the, the good news, good news, bad news, good news sandwich. I mean, it's standard operating procedure. It's let's put out some really fun and exciting news for all those people who are just fans of the park, who really don't care how much money we make as a park. Let's put all that information out there first so that people are feeling good about the park. Then let's follow up with the financial news, which significantly fewer people really pay attention to. Obviously we do because we're in the industry. And, and then, you know, at the end, usually at the end of that call or the end of that presentation is, and by the way, we're adding new shows, we're adding new elements. We're adding, it is, it is a basic, uh, financial PR for, for the attractions industry one-on-one.

12:53 Uh, and so, so it's, it's the way it should be. But, but again, to, to Philip's point, this is, this is a significantly better, uh, this is a significantly more focused, uh, presentation than what we reported on before this actually has some meat to it and um it it sounds like the it sounds like it's it's getting tastier and tastier by the quarter so that's a good. Thing yeah the um. We talked about this also before i think scott particular about how believe me last year they had canceled christmas at some of the parks and we had said like well If you can't make Christmas work, there's probably a larger problem. So they did announce that Six Flags Great Adventure in New Jersey and Six Flags Over Georgia had both canceled holiday in the park in 2025. It's returning both times, rebuilt with new themed areas, nightly tree lightings, and indoor stage shows. So again, it's that same sort of strategy, but you're kind of taking it to these parks.

13:56 You're bringing it back with new areas plus reasons to come back and live entertainment, a lot of live entertainment. And their black Friday deals are also, again, they're pretty good. So, you know, buy one ticket and get the spring and summer of 2027 visits included. If you renew your membership, you're going to get a free ticket for a friend. And then they're doing bundles for staying at participating six flags resort and getting a third night free. So it's all the same strategy. I kind of aimed at bringing your friends, bringing your family, encouraging you to renew, encouraging you to, to trade up, adding entertainment and adding more reasons to come in. Uh, Yeah, it's a common mindset that has come and gone.

14:37 It's gone in and out of fashion over the years, but it sounds like it's exactly what they need to do, especially because they're trying to change their image. They're trying to go back to their family image that Six Flags had many years ago. And secondly, they're trying to get people to trust the brand again. And the best way to do that is to get them into the parks. So they're trying to click the turnstiles. They're giving away And I love the fact that you get an extra ticket to bring a friend. It's not comp tickets. They're not focusing on the comp tickets. It's let's do something with your friends. Let's do something nice for your friends. They're trying to reestablish or perhaps even just establish a Six Flags brand that is far softer. It's not all about how terrifying is it. It's more about here's something that you can do with family and friends. And I think they're recognizing that this market is continuing to grow, and this is really across the industry. So it seems like a wise choice. And if you guys, you know, if you're out there and you're owning smaller organizations or you're even working for larger ones, recognize that families or even just friend groups are using... attractions not just theme parks but are using attractions as ways to go out and do things that don't necessarily require that they be

16:09 terrified by a coaster or that they be right you know overwhelmed they want to go out and have a social moment so make sure that that's incorporated because it's clear that that's what six flags is doing. Right right yeah i think that basically wraps up um so in the timeline you know we had the the sales and winter announcements which I'm sure as we get closer to winter, Scott and I will probably go into all of the individual parks and what they're doing or I don't know. But just to give you guys a timeline, they had the winter announcements and then they had the earnings. They came out and then we had the reactions from Wall Street after that on Friday. And then also on Friday, they kind of confirmed that California's Great America in Santa Clara will close for good after Labor Day on September 6, 2027.

16:57 So it's that. Kind of sandwich approach a little bit of, you know, this, this happening. And I think that's exactly it. So, so basically a lot of the analysts is still lower their price targets. So, but I think it's just overall, it's just not as bad. Like it's still, they're still not in a good position. I don't want to paint the picture. They're in a great position. It's still going to take a lot of dedicated leadership to stay kind of the course and, and they're going to have to delever no matter what. And so a lot of it's going to come down to how much they can sell the parks for, how quickly they can delever, and how they can keep everything going. But basically, the good news is there's more cash coming in, and it seems like they have a concrete plan to sell the parks to pay down to delever.

17:45 But the bad news, of course, is the debt, meantime, is still looming. And we're still unsure about the full fallout of. Goliath, right? That's still... going to have echoes. For many years is the fallout from that so still not sure about that and then there were past sales are happening but it seems like the past sales are slower than they had wanted but is that due to goliath or is it due to other factors macroeconomic factors or that the christmas slate wasn't announced yet or you know there's some but that's basically where we are so good news bad news but i think overall less bad than people had suspected it could be considering what a national story goliath was and i think that's it. Yeah they're they're they're not out of the woods yet.

18:27 And part of the reason they're not out of the woods is because they were so far deep into the woods that, you know, they, they, it's, it's going to take time. But I think that, you know, just in general, whether it's, whether it's the attractions industry or any other industry or, or economy that is changing, you got to recognize that it does take time. And especially when you are so far, Um, it, when you're, when you're hurting so badly, it takes time to recover. And the best way, like I said earlier, the best way to do that, I think is to figure out what your plan is, um, address those things that get in the way, but keep focused on the end prize. What is the North star?

19:10 What is the end result? And how do we plan to get there? And even if that does not take you as quickly, because there's a lot of ways to get to that end result quicker, but they're not as stable. They're not as secure. They're not as, and oftentimes not as successful. So, you know, make it good, make it fast, make it cheap, pick two. The same happens when you're doing a recovery. So when you're doing this kind of recovery, you are going to have to make, as a park, they're going to have to make some tough choices. And I understand that, you know, fans of Great America and California are very sad to see it leave. I know some people who actually work for Flags who started in that park and are very sad to see it leave the Six Flags. family. But it's, it's sort of like you have to make those tough choices, um, so that the corporation as a whole can continue to find its way out of the dilemma that it is in right now.

20:03 Right. Uh, I want to end with some quotes from John Reilly. And I think the, one of them is almost exactly what you're saying is guys find it funny. But so John Reilly said, confidence isn't restored with a statement. It is earned through action and our leadership team is committed to earning it. And I think that's, that's basically what you're saying. It's like, that's exactly what I'm saying. We got to see, it's like, kind of like we've just wanted, it's like, I think that's what also we're saying. We're like, you know, just the numbers are going to come out. So you can, Talk all you want on these earnings calls, but we need to see what's going to actually happen in the park. And a lot of our great commenters also call that out where they comment on how they talk a lot about food, but they still haven't improved the food quality or the ride times are still low or the restaurants are still not reopened or the staffing is still a problem and all that.

20:52 And it's like, well, that's what it's just going to be proved through what they're going to actually do in the park. But I liked that he actually said it. Oh yeah. Well, the thing is, and I guess, you know, I'm, I'm really thrilled cause I did not read, I did not pre-read that quote ahead of time. And, and I'm really excited. I promise I didn't. And I'm excited though, that, that we are saying the same things because I do have a great deal of respect for him. And the few years that, that he was, that we did work together or did work in the same park, um, apparently some of, some of his mentorship rubbed off. So I feel good about that. And, uh, And I continue to wish the Flags company well. I hope they continue to stick to their guns. Don't give up if they're not seeing the turnaround happen as quickly as they, whoever they are, think it should happen. Because it sounds like they're moving slowly but surely on the right track. And hopefully, in my opinion, and this is just an opinion... But in my opinion, their biggest challenge right now is debt. That is the thing that they can't immediately erase. And they are rebranding themselves, and rebranding always takes time.

22:05 It takes time. Patient is going to be job one. Right. Yeah, you just have to slowly, like it takes slowly over time. Okay, so I think that's basically it. There's just one last thing. He also said, he also said, Even in Halloween, we can open earlier. We can stay open later. We can move into September. I just think that's great because we've been talking about that as a big trend. We've been basically beating this drum for a while about the idea that you really only have at max two months, two and a half months for Christmas. You have November, December, and maybe some part in January. But for Halloween, you can have August, September, October. like at least three months, you know, because a lot of places are opening now early August. So that's also been echoed in his statements about maybe moving some of their calendars up for October. So I don't know if that's my little reminder to everybody about the importance of Halloween.

23:05 Well, and I think we all understand the importance of seasonal activations, whether it's Halloween or Christmas. You know, you've heard us say on this show that summer has now become the new shoulder season. Um, and, uh, I, I think the, the only cautionary tale I would throw out there is when Halloween is six months out of the year, then it no longer commercial and it's going to lose its, it's going to lose its appeal. So I think we just have to continue to find that balance. Right. Okay. Well, we have some, a little bit of time for some other news. I think we, Let's knock out very quickly and just show the disparity. So United Parks also reported their earnings in the same week. And I think it's basically the same earnings call, except I think they did less stock buybacks. But basically, everything was down, right?

23:58 So let's see. Total revenue dropped. And also net income dropped. And adjusted EBITDA fell 5%. And for the first nine months in 2026, attendance was down 4%. Their income was down 28% on the 1.6 drops in total revenue. Total revenue per cap was up 2.8%, driven by 4.8% higher in-park spending, so that was fine. But it's the same. They also announced, of course, that they are going to delay the Sequest to 2027, which we kind of knew. They teased they're going to announce a new ride at IAAPA Expo coming up next week. And they also teased that they were going to be building something new in the Middle East, the new partner somewhere in the Middle East.

24:49 So it, what was weird to me was the, almost like the, the disconnect where they were painting this like a great performance and everything is going well and, and all this stuff. But the numbers are just like, they're so bad. It's just so bad. And I get the impact spending up and all that kind of stuff, but like, No, and I think it kind of reinforces also our hypothesis from the last call, which is that they're just trying to prepare assets for sale or they're just trying to consolidate their shares so that when they sell stuff, they get higher. I mean, it just doesn't seem like they're concerned at all with the stuff that makes the part. Just looking at these two, we rag on Six Flags so much and everybody does.

25:38 It's always blah, blah, about six o'clock. But just look at the difference in these two earnings calls. You have Riley, who's apologizing about safety, who has actual plans, talking about live entertainment and their plan for what they're bringing back to the parks, et cetera. And then you have United Parks, where they're still blaming the weather. All the numbers are going in the wrong direction. And he's just saying that they're going to delay their rides. I mean, come on. I mean, it's such a foil. I don't know. Anyway. Well, no, but I think that's important to recognize. It's interesting because I was at Hollow Scream at Busch Gardens, and I was talking to one of the people that I worked with years and years and years ago when I was still in the park.

26:23 And. They were not particularly pleased about the way things were going. And prior to these announcements being made, Um, they did do a, a team member rollout of, of some of the things they were going to say. And now the information's out there. I can talk about it, but basically they said, uh, you know, the only thing that is up is a slight increase in per cap. Right. That's it. But I don't, but I don't get paid in per cap. Right. Was there, was there, was there phrase? And the company doesn't show profit in per cap. Per cap is a very interesting measurement. It's a measurement of how well you are doing once guests are there. It can help you decide where to put signs. It can help you decide when to offer discounts. It can help you decide where to place certain revenue generating elements. But per cap is not a measurement of profit.

27:23 No. And we have to keep that in mind. Well, tell them that because they seem to be just over the moon. But again, this is a cultural thing. This is a cultural thing. We talk about how hard it is to change brand. It's even more difficult to change culture. And culturally, there is an Ivy Tower mentality in these parks because the entire first iteration of Bush Entertainment Corporation... They didn't have to generate profit. They were a tax write-off for a beer company. And I know I've oversimplified that.

28:06 Yes. We're going to get comments. Yes. People are going to yell at me, but I'm sorry. I was there at the time and I know exactly what it was. It was a way to, you know, when we first, when I first started working for the company, it was making friends as our business, not making profit as our business, making friends as our business. And if you think back to the quality of the park back in those days, those of you who are old enough to remember, uh, you'll recognize that that mentality worked as far as creating a good product. Um, we were under, we were developed under the auspices of a very successful brewery, which, you know, it was less than what was it? The, the, the, the budgets for, and it was a much smaller portfolio of parks, but the about 0.75% of the total budget for all of Anheuser-Busch. So that when you are raised, when the culture is developed, even though none of those people are still there, but when the culture is developed in that way, it takes a long, long time and a very concerted effort to turn that behemoth of a ship in a new direction so that it can be profitable.

29:23 So And I'm not saying they're being stupid. I'm not saying they're being dumb. I'm saying this is a cultural challenge that I think they need to address in hopes that they can get over these rough numbers because they are rough numbers. Yeah. Philip's going, that was very nice. They are more than rough numbers. They stink. Yeah. 4% attendance drop, like 4.7% attendance drop, right? And 10% decrease in income. That's like. But yet on the flip side, he's over here say we're happy to report that during Q3, you know, they're so, yeah. Anyway. Yeah, yeah.

30:08 Well, sorry to end on such a bummer note, but we are out of time. So once again, thank you all for commenting. Thank you for listening. Thank you for paying attention. You guys pay more attention to what we say than we do, I think, sometimes. So we appreciate that. We appreciate that you hold us accountable. And we also appreciate that what we say sparks you to share your opinions and your points of view, even if they differ from ours. So we appreciate each and every one of you as listeners. And we hope to see you next time here on Green Tagged Theme Park in 30.