May 12, 2024
Disney’s Ups and Downs
Disney finally saw a profit in streaming, so why did its stock fall 10%?
Disney finally saw a profit in streaming, so why did its stock fall 10%? One answer could be theme park jitters. The "evidence of a global moderation from peak post-Covid travel" has raised concerns for Disney, despite the approval of DisneylandForward, robust Halfway to Halloween announcements, and new research showing travel spending in California reaching an all-time high of $150.4 billion in 2023. This week, we dig into all the numbers to determine whether the concern is warranted.
Show Outline
- 00:00 Intro
- 00:26 DisneylandForward Approved
- 05:33 Record Spending on Travel in California
- 15:10 Disney Stock Dips Despite Profit in Streaming
- 26:26 Disney Parks Halfway to Halloween Announcements
STORIES
WEBVTT
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From our studios in Los Angeles and
Tampa. This is green tagged theme Park
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in thirty. I'm Philip and I'm
joined as always by my co host Scott
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Swinston of Scott Swinson Creative Development.
Today, Scott, we're taking a Disney
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day. Hey, you know it's
a small world after all. Wow,
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I love that. That was great. Well I didn't sing it because I
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didn't want to have to pay royalties, so I just used the pace,
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right, Okay, our first story
here. I'm sure all of you heard
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the news that Disneyland Forward is happening. Disney is officially expanding after a three
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year journey. The Anheim City Council
gave final approval this week for Disneyland Forward,
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the one point nine billion dollar expansion
that allows Disneyland in California to use
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its existing land to construct new theme
parks at Trash and Sotil Rooms Entertainment PAW.
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I think the key point we've talked
about this before, but again just
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to reiterate the key points is that
it's not expanding the footprint of Disneyland property
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itself. What it's doing is allowing
rezoning to take parking structures and to add
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basically build on them to go vertically
up and also allow expansion of other parking
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structures along with allowing new construction or
basically remodeling of some other areas. So
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basically, they're trying to go more
vertical is kind of how I think of
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it. They're trying to utilize their
footprint Britder and go more vertical. There's
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a lot of rumors, a lot
of talk around what might be happening.
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I'm just going to say the only
thing you need to know right now is
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that nothing has been confirmed as of
the date of this recording as to what
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it's going to be. The only
thing that was confirmed is that the Avatar
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land that was announced to be coming
at Disneyland is going to be related in
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some way dis Land Forward, and
specifically that basically they said Avatar is coming
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to Disneyland, and they mentioned though
what that looks like will change depending on
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what happens with Disneyland Forward, which
just kind of seems obvious. That's all
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we know. Yeah, yeah,
and again I think of it as a
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remodel. I mean, they're basically
they're not expanding their house, they're remodeling
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their house. But they're remodeling it
in a way so that they can get
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really more attraction, more attraction in
the in the space that they got,
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they're going to be able to incapacity. Basically, it's just not going to
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physically be any large like the space. It's going to be more vertical.
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You know which is smarter? Honest
Well, it's you know, if you
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think about it, you know,
parking structures. Midday, you walk through
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a parking structure and you see maybe
you know, fifteen twenty people walking around.
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That's now going to be fifteen or
twenty thousand people walking around and filling
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out that that space in a completely
different way. I will say that,
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you know, we talked a couple
episodes ago about leading with those brands that
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we feel our most impactful. I
do find it unique and unusual that they're
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saying, well, we'll definitely have
an avatar land, because that's really not
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it's really not the strongest I know, I know ipe that they have control
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over not really even close to the
strongest. Unless there's something that we don't
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know as far as new films knew, whatevers that will tie into it.
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But I can't imagine it matters even
if they release a new film. Who
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cares? You know, nobody,
well, I mean because you know the
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the the And I will say that
the the Avatar themed area in Florida is
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lovely. It's really well done,
but it's an ip that that not as
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many people are chomping at the bit
to see, and in fact, most
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people in Florida forget it's here.
So yep, you know, yes,
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we'll see, we'll see, but
it's going to be It's suffice to say
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that Disneyland is is going to have
a more a more expanded attractions footprint.
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I think that's probably the safest way
of saying it. And we'll see what
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will definitely be higher. Yeah,
yeah, capacity will be higher. And
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I'm and you know, I'm sure
that that there is infrastructure surrounding that increased
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capacity. If you happen to live
in Anaheim and are going, oh crap,
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it's going to get crazy, and
it will for a while. But
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I'm hoping that that is all part
of the Disney forward plan. I know
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here in Florida it usually is,
and you and quite often has been.
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But I will also stay say that
if you're driving across Eye four and you
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get to once you get to the
air of the four or five exits that
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are Disney property, it slows down
to a crawl no matter what time of
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day it is. So increased capacity
does mean increased traffic, and hopefully Disney
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has planned for that. Just wanted
to throw that out there in case any
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of you are planning to expand your
own parks. Yeah, there, take
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all that into consideration. To be
fair to Disney on this, I'll just
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mention this is Scott brought it up. But there are provisions in that agreement
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that do address some of those items. They address the need to relieve congestion,
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the address to purchase some of the
city streets so they are able to
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expand them for the capacity. It
also includes provisions for I believe it's thirty
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or fifty million some somewhere in there, some some amount that's earmarked to create
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more affordable housing nearby, just to
counterbalance esteem it. So there are sewage
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upgrades, you know, all that. All that's right in there. So
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if you're interested in more of that, just read into them. I just
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want to give everyone like the headlines
right well, and I think, but
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I do think it's important to recognize
that it's not just the park. It
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is the park and the surrounding area
that is being impact yes, well speaking
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of speaking of I think places that
are being impacted. So so the next
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thing is California reports recortoris and numbers. So here's the thing. Our Governor
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Gavinuism he held an interesting little like
press conference like like like on in like
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a photo spot with like the the
bay behind him basically with the bridge behind
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him, and it's very picturesque,
and kind of gave this this this news
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conference where he was basically touting California
as let's see, he said that travel
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spending in California each an all time
high of one hundred and fifty billion in
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twenty twenty three, so passing the
previous record of one hundred and forty four
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in twenty nineteen, and spending was
up five point six percent from twenty twenty
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two, and California continues to have
the largest market share of tourism in the
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nation. So kind of gave this
thing. Here's the thing, got a
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it got mixed. You guys knew, Okay, wait a minute, waiter.
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Those of you who have been listeners
for a long time, you knew
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just by the tone of Phillip's voice
that there was going to be a but
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here's the here's the thing you knew
that was coming. Here's the So on
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its surface, it looked nothing against
knocking Newsom. He didn't lie technically right
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in what he said. I just
think it was very misleading, and a
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lot of other outlets picked up on
this, and so I dug into the
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report itself. Of I found the
report that he referenced, and it was
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like, it's like eighty pages.
We'll link to it in the show notes,
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but I'm gonna I'm gonna give you
the wider context here because the big
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thing he didn't mention was inflation.
So here's the thing. Was he correct
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in that it was one hundred and
fifty billion, and that is, you
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know, all time high, that's
an all time high. But adjusted for
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inflation, travel spending in twenty twenty
three was down fourteen percent from twenty nineteen.
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In twenty twenty three, so that's
the first thing, adjusted for inflation,
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it's actually down. The second thing
is he didn't mention this, but
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there's they actually ninety eight percent of
the jobs compared to pre pandemic peak have
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have been filled, so a near
full travel employment recovery, so that that
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actually I think all is better news
in that we've also almost gotten the full
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recovery. And then a few other
interesting things. If you look at national
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spending on traveling tourism, it's one
point three trillion, which is only a
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zero point five percent growth from twenty
nineteen, and I feel like that is
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the actual picture that Scott and I've
been talking about for a while. But
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I think that's a perfect thing to
say. We're at a half a percentage
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point increase on nationwide travel spending from
twenty nineteen, which is basically like again,
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we're finally we are finally there,
but it's taken halfway through twenty twenty
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four for us to kind of get
back to, you know, a little
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bit, a little bit of an
increase of the all time high. I
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think that's more that to me,
is the biggest perspective for everyone to understand
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on that. A few other numbers
that again Gavin, he didn't mention them,
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but I think they're important for the
Disney conversation is to look at the
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international spending that we saw, which
in twenty twenty three, the Asia Pacific
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region is seeing twenty twenty three the
Asia Pacific region, which was the largest
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contributor to national travel spending twenty nineteen, only spent fifty three percent of its
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twenty nineteen levels. So again that's
another great, big top line thing to
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wrap your brains around, which is
that, like, as we're barely a
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half a percentage of recovery here for
our country, they're only at fifty three
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percent in Asia, which is actually, I think kind of good news for
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international places like Disney because they have
parks there and so if you have a
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lot of things in there, then
you can expect there is going to be
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a return eventually to that growth.
You're going to expect the margin of growth
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in those areas to be much higher
than the margin of growth in the United
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States, because you know, we're
only at point five. And the last
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thing is he's not again, he's
not really wrong. It's just the twisting
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of the numbers. But basically,
if you break this down, California is
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eleven and a half percent of the
spend of the country. I mean,
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it's a big country, and for
just one state to control eleven and a
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half percent of the tourism spend,
that that's a chunk. I mean,
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that is a chunk, so know, not wrong, but definitely like making
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the numbers seem like like it is
an all timelie. He's not wrong,
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but it's like it's not it's not
really that. It's more like it's down
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fourteen percent. But in the context
of the country, you know, like
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ah, in the country yah,
and then in the contracts of the nation,
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it is the biggest place. But
I think it's all about context and
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for us understanding the macro trends,
I think this helps us reorient ourselves to
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everything. Yeah. And I think
it's important to recognize that like any statistic
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you can use, you can use
stats to pretty much make any point you
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want to make. You can,
you know, you can. You And
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there may be somebody listening who doesn't
necessarily agree with Philip's assessment of this either,
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who can say yes, but there's
this, this, and this.
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I doubt that because Philip is very
thorough, significantly more thorough than I am.
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But if that is indeed the case, that's fine. What I think
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is important to recognize is yes,
you can. And let's face it,
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politicians and people who are looking to
get investors are always going to use the
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numbers and position them in the most
positive life. That's what they're supposed to
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do, so not holding not holding
anything against you know, Newsome or or
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any of the folks. It's it. That's what they're supposed to do.
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I think the important thing to me, the most important thing to recognize here
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is we are exactly on track,
at least from what Philip and I have
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been saying. We are exactly on
track when it comes to normalization. We
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have. We have gone back to
and slightly above pre pandemic the pre pandemic
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numbers, which puts us in pretty
good stead especially as Philip mentioned in comparison
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to the Asia market. Right now. You know, we're we're doing pretty
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well there. It's it is for
all intents and purposes, it is.
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It is positively flatlined, you know. It's we've we've come back to that.
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We've come back to that normalization.
We can't The downside is now we
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have to build upon that and we
can no longer use pandemic as an excuse.
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You know. It's one of those
situations where we've talked about how whenever
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any park or any company or entertainment
organization in the world has some sort of
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downtick in their financials. They will
find something to blame it on, whether
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it's the weather, whether it's tourism
has not returned to its levels, whether
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it's blah blah blah blah blah.
Well, what I'm seeing here is tourism
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has returned to its levels, at
least in the in the state of California.
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And and you know, does this
Does this correlate directly to Disney announcing
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their expansion. Maybe not, but
it sure sounds like the the idea was
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to bolster and to reinforce one another, because let's face it, when people
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come to California and spend money at
Disney or any of the parks, really
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it helps California. So tourism,
as Philip pointed out, is eleven to
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eleven point five percent of the national
spend. And so therefore tourism is obviously
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a huge business in the state of
California. It is here in Florida as
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well. So you know, I
don't think it's I don't think it's I
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don't think we have the opportunity here
to go Yay, it's a major win.
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Everything is up and up, and
it's the highest it's ever been.
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Nor do we have the right to
say it still sucks, because that's not
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true. We are finding that normalization
point and in order to keep that keep
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that at a normalization point. It
sounds to me like not only not only
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Newsome, but also Disney is saying, look, look at the confidence we
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have in this, so that if
they have confidence, that translates into the
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customers, the guests having confidence and
continuing to go to California for vacation and
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enjoying the wonderful weather in parks,
et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
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So again, it's it's kind of
like we've kind of dug into all
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the minutia to base say, we're
in an okay place. Yeah, you
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know, yeah, like and we
continue to grow. Yeah, like I
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think in California, yes, are
they like is it as good as twenty
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nineteen yet? Not yet, But
like Scott said, it's pretty flat lined,
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like it is still down adjusted for
inflation from twenty nineteen. However on
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a nationwide scope, you know,
it's only up a half pennut. So
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like relatively speaking, again, it's
in a pretty good place, like Scott
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says. And then you know,
also the whole nation, our whole country
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spends one point three trillion in you
know, California, being eleven percent of
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that is still good. So it's
again it's like yes, it's like,
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is it like going all going gangbusters
and everything is crazy, like you know,
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like the gold Rush days, Like
no, but it wasn't supposed to
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be. It's exactly what Scott said
about the minutia, and that leads us
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into our next pig story kind of
perfectly. And I'll share my little conspiracy
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theory after get through the headline.
But so Philip has a conspiracy period in
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this no Heaven Forbiden. So so
Disney had their investor call, and I
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think the big headline from the investor
call is that Disney Plus was finally revenue
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positive, which should have been fireworks
and champagne everywhere. They don't. They're
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not sure it's going to get to
you to be resident a positive. There's
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still some things I got to iron
out with it and whatever. But despite
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all of that, the stock still
dipped ten percent because the markets are not
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convinced this is in the financial show. Of course, we don't, you
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know, we don't know why,
you know, the markets dipped. But
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here's the thing. He basically I
think that when the the the market is
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looking at Disney and they're like,
Okay, streaming your positive, great,
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whatever, But here's the thing.
Your park's division is starting to struggle,
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and the parks really the cash cow
that makes Disney. If your parks are
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not working at this point, then
Disney is not working. And so I
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think that's why Disney got punished with
the ten percent reduction despite the fact that
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streamings coming back, because as even
as a revenue, it's like six hundred
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and whatever a million, I mean, that's like, I mean, I
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think they're struggling with these two business
models, right. The business model of
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like, it's nice, it would
be nice to have a recurring revenue bundle
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that replaces cable TV, because that's
how Disney came about. I mean,
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that was their original revenue model,
was recurring revenue from cable TV, and
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it would be nice again, like
they've been trying to get to it for
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years to replace that with the streaming. But the market is just it's yet
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to be determined still if that business
model even is going to be as lucrative
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as cable TV, like, it's
still yet to be determined, right,
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So that's a big thing. But
what. Everyone knows that the parks are
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good money, the car parks are
a great business. But if if that
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starts to dip, I think that's
the bigger problem. And I think that's
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my reason and my conspiracy theory is
that all of these words that like,
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I think that Iiger called up Newsom
and who's like, get on that bridge
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and make an announcement about how great
the tourism is in California and how everything
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is incredible and it's about to be
a gold rush and everything. So that
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people see, oh, tourism great
in California. That means that the numbers
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are going to be up at Disneyland. So it's going to be fine because
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they know that the numbers are starting
to stagnate and slow down. And Scott
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and I would say, yes,
that's the equalization that we've been talking about
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forever, you know. But Wall
Street doesn't really like understand that, you
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know, and so they understand it. They don't like it. They don't
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like it's that's the real issue.
They completely understand it. But you know,
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let's face it, there are people
who who couldn't give a rats behind
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about Disney, whether they are successful
or not. They want to buy low
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and sell high. That's what they
do. And and that's fine, but
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yeah, it's it's it's interesting.
I I I I totally understand your your
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sort of conspiracy theory concept, and
I completely agree in the fact that,
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you know, Disney is still struggling
so hard to hang on to what made
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Disney Disney, which was to take
the same ip's and put them out there
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on multiple platforms. You know,
it started Disney disney Land started because well
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wanted someplace where people could experience the
movies. That's you know, that's really
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it. And and then you know
that we've we've talked about it forever.
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Disney's multiple layer IP distribution has been
a huge success for them over the years.
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You know, they it was it
was Disneyland in person. It was
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going to the movies to see the
pictures. It was a wonderful world of
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Disney On on Sunday evening. It
was going to the drug store and picking
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up a Donald Duck coloring book,
you know, hitting hitting everywhere you go
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you see something Disney, and Disney
makes some money off of it. That
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has been very, very successful.
That concept has been very successful. As
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Philip stated, when it comes to
streaming that's still kind of a wild wild
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West, you know, it's it's
not We don't know whether it's going to
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be the the cable television replacement.
It appears so, but I'm curious because
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margins are not there yet. The
margins are not there. Margin that's the
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thing. Well, and that's also
because everybody seems to think that it's going
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to be the next thing. So
there's all kinds of competition out there.
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And when you're when you're holding on
to you know, we we've done probably
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oh gosh, for the last three
or four years, we've talked about content
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as king and uh, you know
that that's I think the biggest challenge when
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it comes to streaming. You are
hesitant. I think the consumer is still
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hesitant to invest what it really costs
to do a what it really costs to
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be profitable as a streaming provider,
because they'll be like, well, they've
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got this that I really want to
see, but so and so has this,
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and so and so has that,
and once I've seen all the stuff
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that I want to see, once
I've seen all the Star Wars movies,
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I'm gonna get rid of Disney because
I don't really care you know, I
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mean, there's there's all of that, but I think that I think that's
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what's what's what's unique here is you
know, I'm not I'm not sure that
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that Disney views California as their true
cash cow. No, well, I
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think they actually would rather have Florida
do better. Well, but it's just
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I mean, he didn't mention it. I didn't even read that, but
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I'll just to because Scott give context
for that. So to give you the
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actual numbers, Disney Plus and Hulu
posted quarterly operating income of forty seven million,
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compared with a loss of five hundred
and eighty seven million a year earlier.
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So that one's great. But what
he's what they said specifically about the
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parks is that actually the last performance
was outstanding for the last three months,
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and he in March with revenue up
ten percent and operating income up twelve percent.
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But Disneyland, despite growing attendance and
per capita spend, saw results dip
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year on year on higher costs,
including labor a big surprise. Eiger said
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that park's growth in the current fiscal
quarter will be flat for a few reasons,
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including some normalization of post COVID demand, as it relates to demand,
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as we just talked about, while
consumers continue to travel in record numbers and
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we are still seeing healthy demand,
we are seeing some evidence of a global
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moderation from peak post COVID travel.
So in a Q and A, of
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course, he said he expected the
parks to rebound in the fourth quarter,
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which, of course we would be
like, yeah, because it's not a
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shoulder season, duh. But you
know, during the Q and A he
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said in terms of attendance, what
we're basically communicating is relative to post COVID
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high things are tending to normalize.
The parks business did ten percent growth in
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the quarter. Obviously that's extremely high
revenue number. We still see the bookings
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as we look ahead and indicate healthy
growth in the business. So we still
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certainly feel good about the opportunities for
continued strong growth. And it it's that
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he's not wrong, right, He's
not wrong about any of these things.
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And back to what I said earlier
when I quoted the fifty three percent utilization
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in the Asia Pacific region. They
have parks in Asia, so at you
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know, the parks are going to
eave as those things continue to grow and
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whatnot. But I think what he's
getting at is We've talked about the normalization,
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but it's it's I would say,
Scot Scott, it's a little bit
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more than the normalization. I just
think for some reason, people are so
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like attuned to the Disneyland numbers,
like to your point, like unfairly so,
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like you know, this is kind
of almost an unfair criticism in my
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opinion, just because if you look
at the portfolio as a whole, there's
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a huge opportunity there. It's just
Disneyland in and of itself is struggling due
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to labor, like he said,
but also look universal right now in the
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news is eating Disney's lunch. They
are like, it's like there's memes everywhere
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of like of like Epic reveals new
Super Nintendo Land and plans for Incredible Coaster
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that does all these technologically advanced things. Disneyland unveiled a new bus rap as
316
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their new ad campaign. Like so
they're eating their lunch and they can't even
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tell us what they're doing for Disneyland
forward. Like even in the City Council
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meeting, some of the people who
are like you expect us to vote on
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this without you telling us what you're
gonna put here and just he's like yes,
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and they're like, I mean,
okay, but like, shouldn't shouldn't
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you have more concrete plans than Avatar
question mark And they're like no dreams,
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dreams and you're like okay, Like
I mean, they're just and then the
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park experience continues to degrade and they're
like Pixar Fest, I mean, with
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their like dancers that are less than
half of the dancers that they had for
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like Paint the Night, if for
any of them, I mean, like
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their offerings are not even close to
what they were in twenty nineteen, and
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we're paying more for less offerings.
I think that's finally starting to catch up
328
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to them, and they're finally starting
to like kind of be held accountable,
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you know, for the poor performance
of the You can't expect to keep making
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all this money from your real business, which is parks. If you're like,
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if you're not investing in it,
I'm sorry, granted, well,
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and I think that, and I
think and I think that you know,
333
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the what the stockholders are saying,
or what what these stock prices are stock
334
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value is saying, is you know, maybe it's time to back off a
335
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little bit on the streaming and invest
in because if they were to take you
336
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know, if they were to take
if they would take half, they would
337
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take half a quarter, take a
quarter of what they're investing in stream investing
338
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it back into the parks. You
know, the question I would have and
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parks, all of them, not
just California, the parks, I would
340
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I would question, would that give
a boost of confidence to the stockholders and
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then take the other you know amount, whatever amount that would be appropriate,
342
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and put it back into dividends to
you know, to make the stockholders feel
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more comfortable. I don't know.
I'm not a financial whiz kid, and
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I don't pretend to be. But
if if it is, indeed, you
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know, you see that the parks
are are successful. And to be fair,
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the parks are in everyone's face.
Streaming is only is only in subscribers
347
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faces, so that when it comes
to raising, when it comes to raising
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the the perception. Yeah, streaming
doesn't generate press like the parks do.
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I mean doesn't exactly exactly. It's
you can't now with now with fewer interruptions.
350
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Yeah, no, I mean just
look at the like Streaker, you
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know, or the thing you know, Small World at Disney which is like
352
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when you have that guy and it
was like national news everywhere. I mean
353
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like it's like anything that happens there, you know, Yeah, it's reporting
354
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on much more so well absolutely and
and and there, and Disney is playing
355
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into that, and in fact,
our next story kind of explains that.
356
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And I'll let you start at Philip
because again it's Halloween, and I know
357
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how much you enjoy that. Yeah, so this is now I think this
358
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is the second year they've done this, but they made a big post for
359
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halfway to Halloween, so it's now
becoming clearly it's I mean, if listeners,
360
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if you were not doing something for
halfway to Halloween, you know you
361
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now is the time, because if
Disney's doing it multiple years in a row,
362
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you know that something must be right
with it. You know. They're
363
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not the fastest to adopt new thing. That's we've talked about. So anyway,
364
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they just they made a bunch of
announcements. I think that the biggest
365
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takeaways is that Mickey Sence's care Halloween
Party is coming back to Florida on August
366
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ninth. Like we repeat that August
ninth, which is basically three months like
367
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we talked about it being three months, and it's basically three months now because
368
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it's going to go from August ninth
through October thirty first, and the tickets
369
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are going to be available already for
hotel guests and they'll be available for everybody
370
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on May fifteenth, So it's thing, boys and girls, it's happening.
371
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And Ogi Boogie Bash is also coming
back for twenty seven nights, which is
372
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an extended run beginning August twenty fifth. It's an extended run, but in
373
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my opinion, it's still not nearly
enough of a run. So I'm still
374
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curious as to why they're not doing
the best they can with that event.
375
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I'd like someone to answer me.
And then Hong Kong Disneyland is gonna do
376
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their Halloween from September twelfth through October
thirty first, which is a surprisingly long
377
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run for Hong Kong in my opinion, just because their competitors are not starting
378
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that early. But they're just doing
everything they did last year. They're going
379
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to bring back House at the Villains
and the Let's Get Wicket Show, which
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is actually my favorite state show anywhere, and then their dinner experience with Nightmare
381
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for Christmas and Tokyo and Paris are
not going to start their Halloween stuff until
382
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October first, so there you go
there. But again, these are things
383
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that are that are significantly more media
worthy than anything that has happened in the
384
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in the streaming realm. Yes,
correct, And he's like, and I
385
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haven't really pert a huge new ip
that they that they will start, you
386
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know, streaming on on Disney Plus. Well, so we always talk about
387
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they're there. They know, like
it's I mean, I guess I'm saying
388
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I don't think that Wall Street is
dumb and that they don't get the concept
389
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of shoulder seasons. I think they're
more saying, hey, you haven't done
390
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anything to resolve the park experience in
some of these places, and we like,
391
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we know you have this plan for
sixty billion over whatever. We want
392
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to see something now, Like we
want to see something like today that's going
393
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to keep the numbers going up because
they're like Halloween, and I think you
394
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know, the Wall Street's like,
yeah, but Halloween is like it's still
395
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months away. What about the summer
season? You know? I think that's
396
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kind of the the I mean,
great, they announced it and it made
397
00:28:52.480 --> 00:28:55.160
a bunch of media buzz. Everyone's
talking about it. Great. I'm sure
398
00:28:55.160 --> 00:28:59.039
that was also planned, right,
There's no coincidence that dropped around the time
399
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they had the earnings call. You
know. You say that, you say
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00:29:00.799 --> 00:29:04.640
that the Wall Street and those people
who make their living off of it understand
401
00:29:04.640 --> 00:29:08.400
shoulder season. Ah. Bet most
of them don't understand shoulder season, because,
402
00:29:08.440 --> 00:29:11.039
like I said, these are not
theme park people. These are These
403
00:29:11.039 --> 00:29:14.799
are people who want return on their
investment. They want to buy low sell
404
00:29:14.880 --> 00:29:22.119
high, and so they they may
not understand and have to be educated by.
405
00:29:22.599 --> 00:29:26.359
So I think that by doing these
Halloween this this Halloween announcement, because
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00:29:26.599 --> 00:29:30.359
the parks know, the parks know
that over the summer their attendance is going
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00:29:30.440 --> 00:29:32.839
to go out. Yeah, they
know it. They know it. So
408
00:29:33.079 --> 00:29:36.000
by saying this and by putting out
a number, like putting out a date
409
00:29:36.079 --> 00:29:38.680
like August ninth for a Halloween event, you know, that's what's going to
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00:29:38.720 --> 00:29:41.759
catch attention. That's what's going to
catch investors' attention where they all of a
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00:29:41.799 --> 00:29:48.039
sudden go oh, this is a
really profitable event and they're starting it now,
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00:29:48.319 --> 00:29:52.000
you know, three months before Halloween. Ah, that's smart business.
413
00:29:52.039 --> 00:29:53.440
You know, you could you can
just you can just hear those guys sitting
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00:29:53.480 --> 00:30:00.319
around talking about that, and so
I understand, I understand the con accept
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00:30:00.920 --> 00:30:04.119
of doing these long range announcements because
again they're looking forward, and the parks
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00:30:04.119 --> 00:30:11.039
themselves know that over the summer they're
going to continue to expand their their attendance
417
00:30:11.400 --> 00:30:18.440
and the numbers will continue to normalize
and with a mild growth. But mild
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00:30:18.440 --> 00:30:21.119
growth is not what any investor wants
to hear, That's true. They want
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00:30:21.119 --> 00:30:25.599
to hear rapid growth, huge growth, big numbers, double digit increases.
420
00:30:25.680 --> 00:30:29.160
You know, these are all the
things that make them very, very enthusiastic
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00:30:29.559 --> 00:30:33.960
about a brand, not just the
fact that they care about a really good
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00:30:33.000 --> 00:30:37.279
park experience. Like Philip and I. So, anyway, that is our
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00:30:37.319 --> 00:30:42.359
Disney Disney deep dive this week.
And we kind of looked at the positive,
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00:30:42.400 --> 00:30:47.400
the negative, and the somewhere in
between, and so I guess Disney
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00:30:47.400 --> 00:30:49.079
really doesn't have a whole lot to
worry about. But gosh, they they
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00:30:49.119 --> 00:30:52.440
should really listen to what we have
to say, because we seem to know
427
00:30:52.480 --> 00:30:55.880
what we're talking about, he says, with his tongue firmly planted in his
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00:30:55.960 --> 00:31:00.759
cheek. Bring entertayament. Oh sorry, lie, Richard Day, So before
429
00:31:02.319 --> 00:31:04.640
before we get too crotchety before we
become too crotchety old man. Okay,
430
00:31:04.720 --> 00:31:08.400
one crotchety old man and one croshchty
younger guy. We're going to end the
431
00:31:08.440 --> 00:31:11.319
show because it's time to go.
Thank you so much for listening to Green
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00:31:11.359 --> 00:31:15.160
Teg Theme Park and thirty and we
will see all of you and all of
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your friends next week
1
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From our studios in Los Angeles and
Tampa. This is green tagged theme Park
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in thirty. I'm Philip and I'm
joined as always by my co host Scott
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Swinston of Scott Swinson Creative Development.
Today, Scott, we're taking a Disney
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day. Hey, you know it's
a small world after all. Wow,
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I love that. That was great. Well I didn't sing it because I
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didn't want to have to pay royalties, so I just used the pace,
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right, Okay, our first story
here. I'm sure all of you heard
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the news that Disneyland Forward is happening. Disney is officially expanding after a three
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year journey. The Anheim City Council
gave final approval this week for Disneyland Forward,
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the one point nine billion dollar expansion
that allows Disneyland in California to use
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its existing land to construct new theme
parks at Trash and Sotil Rooms Entertainment PAW.
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I think the key point we've talked
about this before, but again just
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to reiterate the key points is that
it's not expanding the footprint of Disneyland property
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itself. What it's doing is allowing
rezoning to take parking structures and to add
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basically build on them to go vertically
up and also allow expansion of other parking
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structures along with allowing new construction or
basically remodeling of some other areas. So
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basically, they're trying to go more
vertical is kind of how I think of
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it. They're trying to utilize their
footprint Britder and go more vertical. There's
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a lot of rumors, a lot
of talk around what might be happening.
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I'm just going to say the only
thing you need to know right now is
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that nothing has been confirmed as of
the date of this recording as to what
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it's going to be. The only
thing that was confirmed is that the Avatar
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land that was announced to be coming
at Disneyland is going to be related in
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some way dis Land Forward, and
specifically that basically they said Avatar is coming
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to Disneyland, and they mentioned though
what that looks like will change depending on
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what happens with Disneyland Forward, which
just kind of seems obvious. That's all
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we know. Yeah, yeah,
and again I think of it as a
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remodel. I mean, they're basically
they're not expanding their house, they're remodeling
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their house. But they're remodeling it
in a way so that they can get
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really more attraction, more attraction in
the in the space that they got,
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they're going to be able to incapacity. Basically, it's just not going to
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physically be any large like the space. It's going to be more vertical.
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You know which is smarter? Honest
Well, it's you know, if you
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think about it, you know,
parking structures. Midday, you walk through
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a parking structure and you see maybe
you know, fifteen twenty people walking around.
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That's now going to be fifteen or
twenty thousand people walking around and filling
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out that that space in a completely
different way. I will say that,
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you know, we talked a couple
episodes ago about leading with those brands that
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we feel our most impactful. I
do find it unique and unusual that they're
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saying, well, we'll definitely have
an avatar land, because that's really not
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it's really not the strongest I know, I know ipe that they have control
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over not really even close to the
strongest. Unless there's something that we don't
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know as far as new films knew, whatevers that will tie into it.
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But I can't imagine it matters even
if they release a new film. Who
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cares? You know, nobody,
well, I mean because you know the
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the the And I will say that
the the Avatar themed area in Florida is
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lovely. It's really well done,
but it's an ip that that not as
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many people are chomping at the bit
to see, and in fact, most
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people in Florida forget it's here.
So yep, you know, yes,
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we'll see, we'll see, but
it's going to be It's suffice to say
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that Disneyland is is going to have
a more a more expanded attractions footprint.
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I think that's probably the safest way
of saying it. And we'll see what
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will definitely be higher. Yeah,
yeah, capacity will be higher. And
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I'm and you know, I'm sure
that that there is infrastructure surrounding that increased
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capacity. If you happen to live
in Anaheim and are going, oh crap,
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it's going to get crazy, and
it will for a while. But
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I'm hoping that that is all part
of the Disney forward plan. I know
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here in Florida it usually is,
and you and quite often has been.
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But I will also stay say that
if you're driving across Eye four and you
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get to once you get to the
air of the four or five exits that
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are Disney property, it slows down
to a crawl no matter what time of
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day it is. So increased capacity
does mean increased traffic, and hopefully Disney
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has planned for that. Just wanted
to throw that out there in case any
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of you are planning to expand your
own parks. Yeah, there, take
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all that into consideration. To be
fair to Disney on this, I'll just
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mention this is Scott brought it up. But there are provisions in that agreement
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that do address some of those items. They address the need to relieve congestion,
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the address to purchase some of the
city streets so they are able to
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expand them for the capacity. It
also includes provisions for I believe it's thirty
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or fifty million some somewhere in there, some some amount that's earmarked to create
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more affordable housing nearby, just to
counterbalance esteem it. So there are sewage
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upgrades, you know, all that. All that's right in there. So
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if you're interested in more of that, just read into them. I just
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want to give everyone like the headlines
right well, and I think, but
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I do think it's important to recognize
that it's not just the park. It
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is the park and the surrounding area
that is being impact yes, well speaking
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of speaking of I think places that
are being impacted. So so the next
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thing is California reports recortoris and numbers. So here's the thing. Our Governor
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Gavinuism he held an interesting little like
press conference like like like on in like
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a photo spot with like the the
bay behind him basically with the bridge behind
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him, and it's very picturesque,
and kind of gave this this this news
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conference where he was basically touting California
as let's see, he said that travel
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spending in California each an all time
high of one hundred and fifty billion in
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twenty twenty three, so passing the
previous record of one hundred and forty four
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in twenty nineteen, and spending was
up five point six percent from twenty twenty
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two, and California continues to have
the largest market share of tourism in the
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nation. So kind of gave this
thing. Here's the thing, got a
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it got mixed. You guys knew, Okay, wait a minute, waiter.
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Those of you who have been listeners
for a long time, you knew
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just by the tone of Phillip's voice
that there was going to be a but
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here's the here's the thing you knew
that was coming. Here's the So on
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its surface, it looked nothing against
knocking Newsom. He didn't lie technically right
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in what he said. I just
think it was very misleading, and a
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lot of other outlets picked up on
this, and so I dug into the
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report itself. Of I found the
report that he referenced, and it was
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like, it's like eighty pages.
We'll link to it in the show notes,
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but I'm gonna I'm gonna give you
the wider context here because the big
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thing he didn't mention was inflation.
So here's the thing. Was he correct
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in that it was one hundred and
fifty billion, and that is, you
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know, all time high, that's
an all time high. But adjusted for
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inflation, travel spending in twenty twenty
three was down fourteen percent from twenty nineteen.
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In twenty twenty three, so that's
the first thing, adjusted for inflation,
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it's actually down. The second thing
is he didn't mention this, but
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there's they actually ninety eight percent of
the jobs compared to pre pandemic peak have
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have been filled, so a near
full travel employment recovery, so that that
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actually I think all is better news
in that we've also almost gotten the full
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recovery. And then a few other
interesting things. If you look at national
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spending on traveling tourism, it's one
point three trillion, which is only a
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zero point five percent growth from twenty
nineteen, and I feel like that is
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the actual picture that Scott and I've
been talking about for a while. But
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I think that's a perfect thing to
say. We're at a half a percentage
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point increase on nationwide travel spending from
twenty nineteen, which is basically like again,
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we're finally we are finally there,
but it's taken halfway through twenty twenty
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four for us to kind of get
back to, you know, a little
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bit, a little bit of an
increase of the all time high. I
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think that's more that to me,
is the biggest perspective for everyone to understand
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on that. A few other numbers
that again Gavin, he didn't mention them,
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but I think they're important for the
Disney conversation is to look at the
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international spending that we saw, which
in twenty twenty three, the Asia Pacific
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region is seeing twenty twenty three the
Asia Pacific region, which was the largest
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contributor to national travel spending twenty nineteen, only spent fifty three percent of its
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twenty nineteen levels. So again that's
another great, big top line thing to
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wrap your brains around, which is
that, like, as we're barely a
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half a percentage of recovery here for
our country, they're only at fifty three
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percent in Asia, which is actually, I think kind of good news for
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international places like Disney because they have
parks there and so if you have a
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lot of things in there, then
you can expect there is going to be
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a return eventually to that growth.
You're going to expect the margin of growth
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in those areas to be much higher
than the margin of growth in the United
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States, because you know, we're
only at point five. And the last
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thing is he's not again, he's
not really wrong. It's just the twisting
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of the numbers. But basically,
if you break this down, California is
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eleven and a half percent of the
spend of the country. I mean,
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it's a big country, and for
just one state to control eleven and a
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half percent of the tourism spend,
that that's a chunk. I mean,
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that is a chunk, so know, not wrong, but definitely like making
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the numbers seem like like it is
an all timelie. He's not wrong,
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but it's like it's not it's not
really that. It's more like it's down
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fourteen percent. But in the context
of the country, you know, like
140
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ah, in the country yah,
and then in the contracts of the nation,
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it is the biggest place. But
I think it's all about context and
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for us understanding the macro trends,
I think this helps us reorient ourselves to
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everything. Yeah. And I think
it's important to recognize that like any statistic
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you can use, you can use
stats to pretty much make any point you
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00:10:26.000 --> 00:10:28.960
want to make. You can,
you know, you can. You And
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there may be somebody listening who doesn't
necessarily agree with Philip's assessment of this either,
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who can say yes, but there's
this, this, and this.
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I doubt that because Philip is very
thorough, significantly more thorough than I am.
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But if that is indeed the case, that's fine. What I think
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is important to recognize is yes,
you can. And let's face it,
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politicians and people who are looking to
get investors are always going to use the
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numbers and position them in the most
positive life. That's what they're supposed to
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00:11:01.919 --> 00:11:05.840
do, so not holding not holding
anything against you know, Newsome or or
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00:11:05.919 --> 00:11:09.679
any of the folks. It's it. That's what they're supposed to do.
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I think the important thing to me, the most important thing to recognize here
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is we are exactly on track,
at least from what Philip and I have
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been saying. We are exactly on
track when it comes to normalization. We
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have. We have gone back to
and slightly above pre pandemic the pre pandemic
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00:11:28.159 --> 00:11:33.320
numbers, which puts us in pretty
good stead especially as Philip mentioned in comparison
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00:11:33.320 --> 00:11:37.240
to the Asia market. Right now. You know, we're we're doing pretty
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00:11:37.240 --> 00:11:43.080
well there. It's it is for
all intents and purposes, it is.
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It is positively flatlined, you know. It's we've we've come back to that.
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We've come back to that normalization.
We can't The downside is now we
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have to build upon that and we
can no longer use pandemic as an excuse.
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You know. It's one of those
situations where we've talked about how whenever
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any park or any company or entertainment
organization in the world has some sort of
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downtick in their financials. They will
find something to blame it on, whether
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it's the weather, whether it's tourism
has not returned to its levels, whether
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00:12:18.320 --> 00:12:22.320
it's blah blah blah blah blah.
Well, what I'm seeing here is tourism
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has returned to its levels, at
least in the in the state of California.
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And and you know, does this
Does this correlate directly to Disney announcing
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their expansion. Maybe not, but
it sure sounds like the the idea was
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to bolster and to reinforce one another, because let's face it, when people
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come to California and spend money at
Disney or any of the parks, really
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it helps California. So tourism,
as Philip pointed out, is eleven to
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eleven point five percent of the national
spend. And so therefore tourism is obviously
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a huge business in the state of
California. It is here in Florida as
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well. So you know, I
don't think it's I don't think it's I
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don't think we have the opportunity here
to go Yay, it's a major win.
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Everything is up and up, and
it's the highest it's ever been.
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Nor do we have the right to
say it still sucks, because that's not
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true. We are finding that normalization
point and in order to keep that keep
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that at a normalization point. It
sounds to me like not only not only
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Newsome, but also Disney is saying, look, look at the confidence we
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have in this, so that if
they have confidence, that translates into the
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customers, the guests having confidence and
continuing to go to California for vacation and
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enjoying the wonderful weather in parks,
et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
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So again, it's it's kind of
like we've kind of dug into all
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the minutia to base say, we're
in an okay place. Yeah, you
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know, yeah, like and we
continue to grow. Yeah, like I
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think in California, yes, are
they like is it as good as twenty
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nineteen yet? Not yet, But
like Scott said, it's pretty flat lined,
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like it is still down adjusted for
inflation from twenty nineteen. However on
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a nationwide scope, you know,
it's only up a half pennut. So
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like relatively speaking, again, it's
in a pretty good place, like Scott
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says. And then you know,
also the whole nation, our whole country
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spends one point three trillion in you
know, California, being eleven percent of
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that is still good. So it's
again it's like yes, it's like,
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is it like going all going gangbusters
and everything is crazy, like you know,
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like the gold Rush days, Like
no, but it wasn't supposed to
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be. It's exactly what Scott said
about the minutia, and that leads us
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into our next pig story kind of
perfectly. And I'll share my little conspiracy
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theory after get through the headline.
But so Philip has a conspiracy period in
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this no Heaven Forbiden. So so
Disney had their investor call, and I
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think the big headline from the investor
call is that Disney Plus was finally revenue
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positive, which should have been fireworks
and champagne everywhere. They don't. They're
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not sure it's going to get to
you to be resident a positive. There's
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still some things I got to iron
out with it and whatever. But despite
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all of that, the stock still
dipped ten percent because the markets are not
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convinced this is in the financial show. Of course, we don't, you
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know, we don't know why,
you know, the markets dipped. But
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here's the thing. He basically I
think that when the the the market is
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looking at Disney and they're like,
Okay, streaming your positive, great,
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whatever, But here's the thing.
Your park's division is starting to struggle,
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and the parks really the cash cow
that makes Disney. If your parks are
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not working at this point, then
Disney is not working. And so I
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think that's why Disney got punished with
the ten percent reduction despite the fact that
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streamings coming back, because as even
as a revenue, it's like six hundred
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and whatever a million, I mean, that's like, I mean, I
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think they're struggling with these two business
models, right. The business model of
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like, it's nice, it would
be nice to have a recurring revenue bundle
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that replaces cable TV, because that's
how Disney came about. I mean,
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that was their original revenue model,
was recurring revenue from cable TV, and
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it would be nice again, like
they've been trying to get to it for
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years to replace that with the streaming. But the market is just it's yet
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to be determined still if that business
model even is going to be as lucrative
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as cable TV, like, it's
still yet to be determined, right,
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So that's a big thing. But
what. Everyone knows that the parks are
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good money, the car parks are
a great business. But if if that
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starts to dip, I think that's
the bigger problem. And I think that's
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my reason and my conspiracy theory is
that all of these words that like,
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I think that Iiger called up Newsom
and who's like, get on that bridge
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and make an announcement about how great
the tourism is in California and how everything
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is incredible and it's about to be
a gold rush and everything. So that
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people see, oh, tourism great
in California. That means that the numbers
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are going to be up at Disneyland. So it's going to be fine because
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they know that the numbers are starting
to stagnate and slow down. And Scott
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and I would say, yes,
that's the equalization that we've been talking about
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forever, you know. But Wall
Street doesn't really like understand that, you
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know, and so they understand it. They don't like it. They don't
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like it's that's the real issue.
They completely understand it. But you know,
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let's face it, there are people
who who couldn't give a rats behind
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about Disney, whether they are successful
or not. They want to buy low
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and sell high. That's what they
do. And and that's fine, but
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yeah, it's it's it's interesting.
I I I I totally understand your your
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sort of conspiracy theory concept, and
I completely agree in the fact that,
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you know, Disney is still struggling
so hard to hang on to what made
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Disney Disney, which was to take
the same ip's and put them out there
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on multiple platforms. You know,
it started Disney disney Land started because well
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wanted someplace where people could experience the
movies. That's you know, that's really
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it. And and then you know
that we've we've talked about it forever.
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Disney's multiple layer IP distribution has been
a huge success for them over the years.
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You know, they it was it
was Disneyland in person. It was
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going to the movies to see the
pictures. It was a wonderful world of
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Disney On on Sunday evening. It
was going to the drug store and picking
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up a Donald Duck coloring book,
you know, hitting hitting everywhere you go
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you see something Disney, and Disney
makes some money off of it. That
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has been very, very successful.
That concept has been very successful. As
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Philip stated, when it comes to
streaming that's still kind of a wild wild
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West, you know, it's it's
not We don't know whether it's going to
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be the the cable television replacement.
It appears so, but I'm curious because
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margins are not there yet. The
margins are not there. Margin that's the
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thing. Well, and that's also
because everybody seems to think that it's going
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to be the next thing. So
there's all kinds of competition out there.
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And when you're when you're holding on
to you know, we we've done probably
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oh gosh, for the last three
or four years, we've talked about content
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as king and uh, you know
that that's I think the biggest challenge when
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it comes to streaming. You are
hesitant. I think the consumer is still
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hesitant to invest what it really costs
to do a what it really costs to
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be profitable as a streaming provider,
because they'll be like, well, they've
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got this that I really want to
see, but so and so has this,
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and so and so has that,
and once I've seen all the stuff
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that I want to see, once
I've seen all the Star Wars movies,
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I'm gonna get rid of Disney because
I don't really care you know, I
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mean, there's there's all of that, but I think that I think that's
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what's what's what's unique here is you
know, I'm not I'm not sure that
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that Disney views California as their true
cash cow. No, well, I
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think they actually would rather have Florida
do better. Well, but it's just
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I mean, he didn't mention it. I didn't even read that, but
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I'll just to because Scott give context
for that. So to give you the
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actual numbers, Disney Plus and Hulu
posted quarterly operating income of forty seven million,
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compared with a loss of five hundred
and eighty seven million a year earlier.
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So that one's great. But what
he's what they said specifically about the
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parks is that actually the last performance
was outstanding for the last three months,
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and he in March with revenue up
ten percent and operating income up twelve percent.
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But Disneyland, despite growing attendance and
per capita spend, saw results dip
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year on year on higher costs,
including labor a big surprise. Eiger said
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that park's growth in the current fiscal
quarter will be flat for a few reasons,
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including some normalization of post COVID demand, as it relates to demand,
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as we just talked about, while
consumers continue to travel in record numbers and
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we are still seeing healthy demand,
we are seeing some evidence of a global
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moderation from peak post COVID travel.
So in a Q and A, of
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course, he said he expected the
parks to rebound in the fourth quarter,
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which, of course we would be
like, yeah, because it's not a
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shoulder season, duh. But you
know, during the Q and A he
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said in terms of attendance, what
we're basically communicating is relative to post COVID
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high things are tending to normalize.
The parks business did ten percent growth in
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the quarter. Obviously that's extremely high
revenue number. We still see the bookings
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as we look ahead and indicate healthy
growth in the business. So we still
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certainly feel good about the opportunities for
continued strong growth. And it it's that
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he's not wrong, right, He's
not wrong about any of these things.
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And back to what I said earlier
when I quoted the fifty three percent utilization
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in the Asia Pacific region. They
have parks in Asia, so at you
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know, the parks are going to
eave as those things continue to grow and
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whatnot. But I think what he's
getting at is We've talked about the normalization,
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but it's it's I would say,
Scot Scott, it's a little bit
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more than the normalization. I just
think for some reason, people are so
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like attuned to the Disneyland numbers,
like to your point, like unfairly so,
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like you know, this is kind
of almost an unfair criticism in my
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opinion, just because if you look
at the portfolio as a whole, there's
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a huge opportunity there. It's just
Disneyland in and of itself is struggling due
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to labor, like he said,
but also look universal right now in the
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news is eating Disney's lunch. They
are like, it's like there's memes everywhere
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of like of like Epic reveals new
Super Nintendo Land and plans for Incredible Coaster
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that does all these technologically advanced things. Disneyland unveiled a new bus rap as
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their new ad campaign. Like so
they're eating their lunch and they can't even
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tell us what they're doing for Disneyland
forward. Like even in the City Council
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meeting, some of the people who
are like you expect us to vote on
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this without you telling us what you're
gonna put here and just he's like yes,
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and they're like, I mean,
okay, but like, shouldn't shouldn't
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you have more concrete plans than Avatar
question mark And they're like no dreams,
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dreams and you're like okay, Like
I mean, they're just and then the
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park experience continues to degrade and they're
like Pixar Fest, I mean, with
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their like dancers that are less than
half of the dancers that they had for
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like Paint the Night, if for
any of them, I mean, like
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their offerings are not even close to
what they were in twenty nineteen, and
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we're paying more for less offerings.
I think that's finally starting to catch up
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to them, and they're finally starting
to like kind of be held accountable,
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you know, for the poor performance
of the You can't expect to keep making
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all this money from your real business, which is parks. If you're like,
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if you're not investing in it,
I'm sorry, granted, well,
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and I think that, and I
think and I think that you know,
333
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the what the stockholders are saying,
or what what these stock prices are stock
334
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value is saying, is you know, maybe it's time to back off a
335
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little bit on the streaming and invest
in because if they were to take you
336
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know, if they were to take
if they would take half, they would
337
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take half a quarter, take a
quarter of what they're investing in stream investing
338
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it back into the parks. You
know, the question I would have and
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parks, all of them, not
just California, the parks, I would
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I would question, would that give
a boost of confidence to the stockholders and
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then take the other you know amount, whatever amount that would be appropriate,
342
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and put it back into dividends to
you know, to make the stockholders feel
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more comfortable. I don't know.
I'm not a financial whiz kid, and
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I don't pretend to be. But
if if it is, indeed, you
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know, you see that the parks
are are successful. And to be fair,
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the parks are in everyone's face.
Streaming is only is only in subscribers
347
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faces, so that when it comes
to raising, when it comes to raising
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the the perception. Yeah, streaming
doesn't generate press like the parks do.
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I mean doesn't exactly exactly. It's
you can't now with now with fewer interruptions.
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Yeah, no, I mean just
look at the like Streaker, you
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know, or the thing you know, Small World at Disney which is like
352
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when you have that guy and it
was like national news everywhere. I mean
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like it's like anything that happens there, you know, Yeah, it's reporting
354
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on much more so well absolutely and
and and there, and Disney is playing
355
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into that, and in fact,
our next story kind of explains that.
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And I'll let you start at Philip
because again it's Halloween, and I know
357
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how much you enjoy that. Yeah, so this is now I think this
358
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is the second year they've done this, but they made a big post for
359
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halfway to Halloween, so it's now
becoming clearly it's I mean, if listeners,
360
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if you were not doing something for
halfway to Halloween, you know you
361
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now is the time, because if
Disney's doing it multiple years in a row,
362
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you know that something must be right
with it. You know. They're
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not the fastest to adopt new thing. That's we've talked about. So anyway,
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they just they made a bunch of
announcements. I think that the biggest
365
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takeaways is that Mickey Sence's care Halloween
Party is coming back to Florida on August
366
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ninth. Like we repeat that August
ninth, which is basically three months like
367
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we talked about it being three months, and it's basically three months now because
368
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it's going to go from August ninth
through October thirty first, and the tickets
369
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are going to be available already for
hotel guests and they'll be available for everybody
370
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on May fifteenth, So it's thing, boys and girls, it's happening.
371
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And Ogi Boogie Bash is also coming
back for twenty seven nights, which is
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an extended run beginning August twenty fifth. It's an extended run, but in
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my opinion, it's still not nearly
enough of a run. So I'm still
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curious as to why they're not doing
the best they can with that event.
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I'd like someone to answer me.
And then Hong Kong Disneyland is gonna do
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their Halloween from September twelfth through October
thirty first, which is a surprisingly long
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run for Hong Kong in my opinion, just because their competitors are not starting
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that early. But they're just doing
everything they did last year. They're going
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to bring back House at the Villains
and the Let's Get Wicket Show, which
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is actually my favorite state show anywhere, and then their dinner experience with Nightmare
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for Christmas and Tokyo and Paris are
not going to start their Halloween stuff until
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October first, so there you go
there. But again, these are things
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that are that are significantly more media
worthy than anything that has happened in the
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in the streaming realm. Yes,
correct, And he's like, and I
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haven't really pert a huge new ip
that they that they will start, you
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know, streaming on on Disney Plus. Well, so we always talk about
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they're there. They know, like
it's I mean, I guess I'm saying
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I don't think that Wall Street is
dumb and that they don't get the concept
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of shoulder seasons. I think they're
more saying, hey, you haven't done
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anything to resolve the park experience in
some of these places, and we like,
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we know you have this plan for
sixty billion over whatever. We want
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to see something now, Like we
want to see something like today that's going
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to keep the numbers going up because
they're like Halloween, and I think you
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know, the Wall Street's like,
yeah, but Halloween is like it's still
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months away. What about the summer
season? You know? I think that's
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kind of the the I mean,
great, they announced it and it made
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a bunch of media buzz. Everyone's
talking about it. Great. I'm sure
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that was also planned, right,
There's no coincidence that dropped around the time
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they had the earnings call. You
know. You say that, you say
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that the Wall Street and those people
who make their living off of it understand
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shoulder season. Ah. Bet most
of them don't understand shoulder season, because,
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like I said, these are not
theme park people. These are These
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are people who want return on their
investment. They want to buy low sell
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high, and so they they may
not understand and have to be educated by.
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So I think that by doing these
Halloween this this Halloween announcement, because
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the parks know, the parks know
that over the summer their attendance is going
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to go out. Yeah, they
know it. They know it. So
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by saying this and by putting out
a number, like putting out a date
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like August ninth for a Halloween event, you know, that's what's going to
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catch attention. That's what's going to
catch investors' attention where they all of a
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sudden go oh, this is a
really profitable event and they're starting it now,
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you know, three months before Halloween. Ah, that's smart business.
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You know, you could you can
just you can just hear those guys sitting
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around talking about that, and so
I understand, I understand the con accept
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of doing these long range announcements because
again they're looking forward, and the parks
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themselves know that over the summer they're
going to continue to expand their their attendance
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and the numbers will continue to normalize
and with a mild growth. But mild
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growth is not what any investor wants
to hear, That's true. They want
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to hear rapid growth, huge growth, big numbers, double digit increases.
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You know, these are all the
things that make them very, very enthusiastic
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about a brand, not just the
fact that they care about a really good
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park experience. Like Philip and I. So, anyway, that is our
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Disney Disney deep dive this week.
And we kind of looked at the positive,
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the negative, and the somewhere in
between, and so I guess Disney
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really doesn't have a whole lot to
worry about. But gosh, they they
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should really listen to what we have
to say, because we seem to know
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what we're talking about, he says, with his tongue firmly planted in his
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cheek. Bring entertayament. Oh sorry, lie, Richard Day, So before
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before we get too crotchety before we
become too crotchety old man. Okay,
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one crotchety old man and one croshchty
younger guy. We're going to end the
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show because it's time to go.
Thank you so much for listening to Green
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Teg Theme Park and thirty and we
will see all of you and all of
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your friends next week
