2024 Trends and Predictions

Philip (00:01.149)
from our studios in Los Angeles and Tampa. This is green tagged theme park in 30. I'm Philip and I'm joined as always by my cohost, Scott Swenson, Scott Swenson, development. And it is New Year's. We are here for our special happy new year. Almost a panel. What time you're listening to it. Maybe you missed it. Maybe it's before.

Scott (00:13.354)
Happy New Year! Yay!

Scott (00:20.598)
Well, it's still, it's still a new year for us coming into your homes or your cars or your ears, whatever, you know, however you digest us. So, uh, yeah, it's still a new year since it's, it's a new year since we've talked to you last.

Philip (00:34.349)
So we're going to do a special episode because it's New Year's and we're going to look at, I think it's more of like a trend episode. We'll look at some of the trends from last year and try and talk about how those trends are going to extend into this new year, 2024. And I have five like giant buckets. So really this is not planned out yet.

Scott (00:56.39)
And who knows where these, we may not get through all five. Just gonna warn everybody ahead of time, because this is not as planned to the detail moment as our show's, okay, it's never planned to the detailed moment, but it's not as drawn out in a specific chart as our shows normally are. So this may get us rambling for the next 30 minutes or so. But I think that Philip has put together a really interesting grouping.

of topics that I think will affect us in the attractions industry. So let's dive in and see what we come up with.

Philip (01:30.069)
Yeah, we're just going to go. So, uh, so the first thing is the possibility of a soft landing. And we have been obsessed, of course, with inflation and the economy and all of this stuff, which greatly impacts attractions, especially because of course, you know, these type of, our type of spending comes from discretionary piles and discretionary piles are the things usually, usually cut from people when they have to cut budgets, you know, you're not going to

necessarily cut food. Although, here's the thing about this, the numbers that are coming out are just so wonky, right? The jobs numbers continue to be good. We have job pay rates increasing to match or exceed inflation, which means people might have that discretionary income. And you saw 3.1% increase in consumer spending during the Christmas period over last year, so.

I mean, people spent, overall they spent more on Christmas, which we didn't think was gonna happen. So I just think there's so many signs that we have to be a little bit more positive about the economy going into next year. We thought it was gonna be kind of a terrible year for attractions, but if all these trends continue, and especially if folks have more money, and especially looking at some of the indicators we had this year, if you remember.

you know, all of the Disney events selling out and the Universal doing well. And even the local, again, what we talked about, if it's a family tradition, they actually did stop eating. Right? Like, it's like people, like people went down to like beans and rice and chicken from Sam's, which is what I did. And you made room for those budgetary items that were important for your family. And so I think we could see that continue in 2024.

Scott (03:11.478)
Yeah, I think it's interesting. A couple things I just want to throw out there as a possibility. You mentioned raising wages to equal or surpass the economical inflationary challenges that we're dealing with. Do keep in mind that means some people will have more money. But the way most companies do that is by economizing the workforce. So...

Philip (03:31.711)
Yeah, that's true.

Scott (03:39.39)
You know, we always like to see, we always like to hear when people talk about, yes, we're raising the wages, we're raising wages. That's wonderful. But what I hear with that, only because I have been personally a, I don't want to use the term victim because I don't like to think of myself as a victim. But I have I have personally participated in the we are going to make it better for the people that we keep. But then they reduce the workforce. So what I what frightens me when I hear things like, oh, yes, we're going to we're going to double our wages or we're going to increase our wages.

30 to 35 percent or whatever. What that makes me nervous about is how many jobs are you losing in order to do that? So I think we have to take into consideration that particular possibility and as it happens, I think our marketing, you know people who are listening from the marketing side I think you need to recognize. Okay, who's got the money to spend? and unfortunately, I think it is going to build some walls around our attractions that are economically based and I just think we need to take that into consideration as well.

Now I don't want to be normally I'm the I'm the voice of positive cheer and Philip tears it all down But I'm gonna be the opposite in this particular case. I love the fact that we are at least looking at fair wages I think that is incredibly important, but I also think it's important especially from the attractions audience standpoint to recognize that There will be more people or there will be people who have funds to

they'll have discretionary income. They'll have funds to come to our attractions. But there may be fewer people who have discretionary income because in order to elevate certain pay scales, you have to eliminate others. Or you just have to say, I am not a business, I'm a charity, so I will magnanimously give to everybody. And I know there are people who are gonna argue with me and say, there are large corporations out there that are making way too much money, but that's what large corporations do. And so...

You know, it's, we have to be realistic when we hear phrases like that. I do think it is positive that we are seeing that Christmas spend was up when we didn't think it was going to be. I also think it's very positive, just using your analogy, Philip, sometimes giving up food for what is important for the family. To me, in my opinion, that's kind of right sizing.

Scott (06:06.606)
I mean, let's nurture the soul and nurture the family as much as we nurture the body. And I think that is a, I think that's something that's actually come from COVID. I think that we have learned we don't necessarily need to have the highest priced food or the highest priced car or the highest priced clothing. And what we really value and what's really worth something to us is time and experiences. So.

Philip (06:06.876)
Mm-hmm.

Scott (06:33.45)
I think, you know, coming out of this and coming into that mentality, if it does continue. And again, I'm using teeny pieces of information to kind of cobble that together. But if people are spending more money on Christmas, then that means that they're recognizing, you know what, this is important, the time spent with family and the holiday season making it a fun and happy time. I will say that...

At least locally, I have not looked globally as, I have not experienced it personally globally as much as I have locally, but locally all of the holiday events are doing exceptionally well, both Christmas and New Year's. New Year's is going to be a gigantic event, a gigantic series of events, certainly here in Tampa and in Orlando as well. So...

Philip (07:14.325)
Yeah.

Philip (07:24.429)
Yeah.

Scott (07:27.339)
I think we're seeing here, and again, maybe I'm wrong, but what I think we're seeing here is people are right sizing their spends. They're recognizing that families are as important as brag tags or status symbols, and that I think is a very good sign for the attractions industry.

Philip (07:47.165)
Yep. Some other things to think about in that is just, of course, a lot of, you know, there are people on both sides of this, obviously, and just some of the.

Counterpoints of course are that Christmas spending doesn't necessarily mean people will continue to spend through the first two quarters, which is, you know, the shoulder seasons, which is valid. There's also the point that there is a topping of trillion dollars of credit card debt in the US and that credit card debt has skyrocketed, of course, during this last time as savings dipped. And of course, that the amount of buy now pay later systems have really, you know, kind of like exponentially amped up.

You know, all that's fine, but ultimately I think we're an economy built around consumer spending. And I think the rest of the stuff kind of shakes out or it figures itself out, I think, as the spending continues. We just want to make sure it's not overspending out of their means, but that's kind of always happened. I think that...

Scott (08:49.346)
I don't think there's a single family of five who has ever taken a Disney vacation that wasn't spending outside their means.

Philip (08:55.593)
Well, yeah, exactly. And that's what I was going to say. I also think that if the parks aren't doing it, if your trash isn't doing it, I do think that the flex pay or the kind of making it smaller, spread out chunks option is still, is pretty critical and that's proving to be very popular and a very good method of.

of, you know, just it's the annual pass mentality. But even if you don't offer the annual pass, just offering a split payment type of thing, I think that makes a big difference with spending and clearly, I mean, that's made a big difference in spending this year. So, uh, okay. Uh, bucket two, I'm calling this the misinformation avalanche, uh, just because I think this is going to ramp up very quickly, you know? Uh, so basically this is tied. Exactly. Well, and that's the thing that it's.

Scott (09:39.266)
We are coming up on an election. That's usually what happens, you know?

Philip (09:44.977)
It's two things. It's the election plus it is the AI, the advances in AI, which is the next bucket, but we can kind of put them together. So I think that we've all seen it. You know, it's just the, as a content creator, I can tell you that, you know, the creating content of certain mediums is certainly becoming much easier. And just really that anybody can do it from their phone, from their app.

you know, text-based content, images, even now certain video and that type of content is just, you know, massively growing. And I do think that, you know, just no way around it. Honestly, there's no way around it. It's going to happen. There's going to be an avalanche of misinformation, or even if it's not nefarious, but like stuff that isn't properly checked or isn't, you know, whatever is just created. And there's going to be a lot of bad actors, as there always are, there's always...

trying to interfere with our elections. I think that's the difference is there's going to be people nefariously trying to create fake content for a purpose versus like kids on 4chan just trying to make funny things. I'm not sure to what extent that's going to impact the trashes industry. I do think that it's going to become so ubiquitous that at some point there's going to be some fake.

disinformation thing that's gonna really rattle the attractions industry just by accident. I don't think anyone's necessarily gonna take target at the attractions unless potentially Disney. But I do just think that it's gonna be so prevalent that just by its nature, right, it's gonna kinda impact the attraction space. I actually, I think that we are relatively insulated just because, you know, it's like, you can go to the attraction.

And you can still go to the attraction and pay there and you can go there and see for your own eyes whether you know that it's real, right? It's like we're insulated because again, the wall garden thing, you know, we're physical experiences. So it's you know, right now you can't use a item, make a physical experience yet. I mean, you could print something, but but.

Scott (11:53.098)
Yet. Yeah. Once AI gets married to 3D printers, then maybe. But yeah. No, I think that you're right. I think we are to a certain extent insulated. However, you mentioned Disney and living in Florida, I hesitate to call myself a Floridian because it's really pretty far from my mentality in many cases, but living in Florida, we've already seen it. We've already seen Disney with a target on their backs and their fronts and their sides and any place else

Philip (11:58.697)
Yeah, yeah.

Philip (12:09.025)
Mm-hmm.

Scott (12:22.986)
the local government or the state government can put one of those targets. So, you know, I think that we do need to pay attention to what's going to happen, certainly with political misinformation. The thing that I find fascinating is even the parties or the candidates that I like what they're saying. I'm becoming more and more infuriated about how they're saying it. So I think that, you know, because they're starting to play the same games. They're giving

Philip (12:47.53)
Yeah.

Scott (12:52.43)
not necessarily misinformation. And I think this is where we have to really differentiate that selective information is misinformation. You know, when they only give you one side and only share with you the thing that supports their agenda, that is misinformation. That is purely misinformation because they're not giving you the full story so that you can actually make the decision on your own.

Anytime anybody uses phrases like, all of the time, or this is 100% of the time, I am 100% certain, in this day and age, you cannot be 100% certain of anything. You really can't. And I think that's sad.

Philip (13:37.033)
Well, there's gravity in Texas and water.

Scott (13:40.71)
Well, yeah, I'm 100% certain in gravity. Great. Let's not, we won't have any argument about that. And that means that roller coasters will still work. Yes. Okay. So, um, but other than that, uh, and even taxes, let's face it, we've had, we've had people who have found ways to make those fictional. Yeah. It's it, you know, so you gotta have to, you kind of have to, I think what's important is even information you agree with.

Philip (13:54.221)
That's true. That's true. Even as I said that I was like, oh no, actually no.

Scott (14:10.378)
And I have fallen prey to this over and over again. Even information you agree with, do not accept it at face value until you have vetted it. And do not use that kind of information, even the information that you agree with, as a weapon against someone else. Information was never designed to be a weapon. Information was designed so that you could make better choices, better decisions. And the moment you start using, and again, I mention this because we're going into a political year.

The moment you start using information as a weapon on either side, you basically undermine the power of truth. And I realized that truth is even sort of a, there's, you have different perspectives on what the truth is. But I think you need to be responsible to look at that and see, you know, how it's going to impact you and your business. That, you know, there are threats and prognostications being made.

Again, I'm going to go back to Florida simply because I know it best about how Epic Universe is going to shut down the industry here. It's going to destroy the industry here in Florida because Walt Disney World Resort is not having a great year. Busch Gardens is not having a great year. And so Epic is just going to be the last nail in the coffin, which is diametrically opposed to what happened when Animal Kingdom opened and they said the exact same thing.

When Animal Kingdom opened, basically what happened was more people came to the state of Florida, which meant that all of the ancillary parks, I was working for Busch Gardens at the time, all the ancillary parks had phenomenal years. So I think that we have to take all of this absolute positive certainty that people want to share information. Nobody wants to be wishy washy when they're trying to make a point. But I think that the moment somebody doesn't allow any sort of wiggle room...

they're not telling the truth, or they're keeping something from you. So keep that in mind. And I think that's really important in how we run our attractions. If we say that Epic Universe is gonna be the end of everything in all theme parks in Florida, then let's just close our doors now. I mean, that's ridiculous. We would never do that. So I think we have to really look at the reality of the situation, not the artificial reality, but the actual reality.

Scott (16:33.998)
You know, we used the term actual reality earlier, and Philip just alluded to it, that in the attractions industry, we create real experiences, and we need to continue to do so, and to do it in the highest quality we possibly can.

Philip (16:41.421)
Mm-hmm.

Philip (16:50.086)
Mm-hmm. Okay. Okay, bucket three, the content reckoning. So my news item for this is, of course, linked to that Amazon Prime is going to be charging $2.99 if you want to continue without ads. And of course, earlier, Netflix added ads and you saw Disney change their prices. Basically...

It's the content reckoning and it's, I think it's a combination of things. There's all sorts, there's a strike, there's AI, there's all sorts of things in the background, but also there's just the concept of right-sizing that we talk about all the time, you know, this, these business models were never sustainable, right? And I honestly, this is going to be an unpopular opinion, but honestly, I kind of feel like, uh, you know, the cable model worked for a while, uh, you know, forked for, for a pretty good time and it worked for.

reasons and I think we're gonna we're getting back there because there's gonna end up being probably as I've said a while probably three ish you know stream platforms again just like channels cable channels and there's some smaller ones gonna buy whatever and you're gonna Consolidate and then they're going to right size their pricing which is what they're doing now and It's gonna end up being more and you're gonna have to you're in pain as much as you work for cable And you know what? I think it gets right sizing the content reckoning part is that I think people need to

Reckon with the fact that content costs money. All content costs money. Content at theme parks costs money. It costs money to do that live show. It costs that money to do, to have the characters coming out and performing. Like all these things aren't just free, they cost money. And as a content creator myself, I think it's gonna also leak down into that area. You know, it costs money to create, even when we are going to an event to cover an event.

it costs money and not just in the gas and the food and the actual camera equipment and you know, amortization on those things in your car where that takes to get there, but also the time that you spend recording and editing and all that costs times. And you just, you know, we've had too many like platforms, just too many people have been trying to kind of like make money off of vast, you know, aggregates of people and all that. I think, so I think all this is, is in the pot for a big reckoning. And I'm hoping that it will.

Philip (19:05.289)
at the end, it will make people realize that the content in the theme parks is worth something. And I'm like, I'm hoping that people will say, well, geez, now I have to pay X amount for all this stuff. So, you know, content is worth money and it'll translate that into if you're at the parks and you see fantastic characters and have fantastic moments and activities and shows. And you're like, wow, this is so much content that I'm getting and, you know, and nothing is free so that it makes you feel

a proper evaluation for it because people for too long have been just writing off all the things we've been doing. Anyway, that's my soapbox.

Scott (19:43.77)
No, that's I think that's and I think that's very important and I think you're absolutely right I want to take half a step back in time because again you mentioned the cable platform and the cable business model I want to go back before that before that when there were three major networks The reason there were three major networks is because they bought up all the local networks and they became affiliates of ABC NBC CBS For those of you who are you have for those of you who are you know under 20 have no idea what I'm talking about But that's okay

And so then Cable came in to challenge that. Cable came in to challenge those networks. And the networks moved into the Cable arena, not so much as they've moved into the streaming arena, but Cable built up, built up, built up. And it used to be exactly the same way the streaming situation is now. You had Cable, you had basic Cable, and you had add-on of Showtime, and add-on of Cinemax, and add-on of Homebox Office, which it was...

what it was known as when it first started, as opposed to just HBO. So they just kept adding and adding and adding and adding and adding, and then you got more networks because there was a competitive market. This is, does this sound familiar? This is exactly what's happening with streaming. So, you know, we can always look back and go, well, that worked so much better, but the truth is it's exactly the same. It's just a different delivery method. All right.

Philip (20:54.401)
Mm-hmm.

Philip (21:02.025)
It's the same thing. Yep. Yeah.

Scott (21:05.31)
As far as content goes, you're absolutely right. You know, we are, and Philip, you've said this many, many times. We are now in an era where content is king and you know, what, what you, it's not necessarily the money you have in your bank account, it's the content or the IP or the, the IP you create even, or the IP you're able to purchase or the content that you are able to create with it, um, that is, and it has to be high quality, you know, how many times have you heard us say

this throughout this year, actually throughout the entire run of this series, uh, execution, execution. Um, but, uh, you know, I think that. And I, again, I don't have any insider information. I honestly, I have zero insider information, but simply based on what I've seen as far as audition notices. Um, I just mentioned Epic Universe. I will now give them a great deal of praise, uh, in the fact that it appears as though they need a ton of performers. And you know, that being a.

someone who lives in Florida who works, who has clients here, that's going to be an interesting strain and we'll see how we deal with that. But they're bringing on a ton of performers and with very special skills. So it sounds to me like they are recognizing the value and bringing back sort of a rebirth of live entertainment. And if you had told me even 10 years ago that Universal was going to be the parks that were going to do that, I never would have believed you.

but it is clear that they are listening to guests. It appears to be, I can't say it's clear because I really, like I said, I don't have the business model in front of me. I don't have their show schedule in front of me. I have no idea. But based on what they're auditioning for locally, they're looking to bring on a very broad spectrum of live entertainers. And that kind of content, you're right, does cost money. But I think what they're recognizing is that kind of content,

Philip (22:52.713)
Yep.

Scott (23:00.726)
because the pendulum has swung back the other way, that kind of content is quite valuable. And everybody's like, well, wait a minute, no, you gotta pay all that labor. That's right, but let's put things into perspective. Building one attraction is, oh, what? 10 years of labor for live entertainment? And you can change it out every six months if you want to. And that's still included in that cost. So if you want something always new, make it live, make it flexible. And I think that...

Philip (23:17.329)
Yeah, yeah, exactly, yeah.

Philip (23:28.169)
Yeah.

Scott (23:30.406)
I hope that Parks will start recognizing that because once again, that is that content creation. And if you're able to create, it kind of plays right into the influencers and the social media because content creators, you can go through a ride or an attraction and you get the same footage that everybody else gets. You go through something live or something immersive that is designed to be unique and interact with you, you get something different every time you go. And that way you can get...

Philip (23:42.037)
Yeah.

Philip (23:51.425)
Yep.

Scott (23:59.566)
quote unquote, exclusive content that nobody else got a chance to see. So I'm curious to see how that all plays forward. I think everybody should definitely keep that in mind as you decide to design your, your entertainment package for the coming years.

Philip (24:17.269)
Yeah, I want to put one more note on the social media part of that, and that's that what we have discovered in the aging of these platforms is that they are not really social media anymore as much as they are content delivery systems or media companies in their own right, because the vast majority of people do not create content. They just consume. And that is...

you know, different. I think when they first launched, you know, it was like, it was like novel, where you would like, you know, you know, post on MySpace and then post on Facebook and whatnot. And you're like, Oh, this is what I'm having for breakfast is whatever, that type of turns out like, that's not sustainable. Like people don't want to do that to the whole world, especially with all this now the privacy evolutions, you know, so people are still updating their friends on that kind of stuff individually.

But in terms of the public content that's being posted, it's something like 95% or less of people that are not, it's like 95% and then plus, or they're just not posting anything publicly. And so it's like, increasingly it's like one to 5% of people that are responsible for all the content on platforms. And I think that's what's gonna part, hopefully, hopefully that is what will push it because it's like, if only 1% of your users,

provide everything that makes the platform the platform, then you need to pay them. Like appropriately.

Scott (25:43.762)
And there are people who are becoming quite wealthy as content creators, because they have found ways to monetize in various forms. I also think we have to point out that the challenge that I think streaming services and networks are having is the viewer still has to find the content. When you're talking about social media platforms, the algorithm

Philip (25:53.163)
Yeah.

Philip (26:10.473)
It's delivered to you.

Scott (26:13.802)
brings the content to the viewer. They don't have to search for it.

Philip (26:16.226)
Yeah. Well, that's even more of, that's even more of what makes it increasing, like a content platform. Like it's not a social network anymore. There are none. There are no, there are no social networks anymore. It's, it's really just media.

Scott (26:21.758)
Right. No, you're absolutely right. Yeah. I, I like one, I liked one, one video on painting on, uh, on Facebook. And my phone's nearby. So now that's heard me say painting. Um, it's now going to start sending me even more. I can't, you know, the day does not go by without seeing at least three to five videos on painting.

Philip (26:45.421)
Yeah, well, okay, we're not going to get to all five buckets clearly. So bucket number four, we'll try and wrap this one up, is climate change, which is just, we've been talking about this, gosh, and it's just, so for context, 2023 was the hottest year on record, and you know what, it's not going to get better. They're already looking at the El Nino weather pattern that's going to come in and potentially drive a lot of...

extra heat in for this next year. So, so basically it's going to get worse. And if you remember, we talked a lot about how the parks in Florida and the parks, where are there any, any high-end climate issues, you know, they're citing that the weather is what led to their decreased attendance, uh, in some of the quarters.

And we even had some parks that put out climate policies in their ticket sales about how if it was over a certain temperature range in a certain day, you would be able to leave and come back at no charge. I mean, it's gonna continue to be a thing that's going to especially impact. Here's one of those things where if we are, if the misinformation is not super effective against us, it's like a Pokemon battle. If like that thing is not super.

super effective against us because we have physical experiences. We are, we are very vulnerable to climate change just because, uh, we are physical experiences that are outside for the most part in the U S and if it's over 115, people don't want to stand outside and you know, part, I just think that this is going to continue to be a bigger and bigger problem for parks everywhere and we're going to need solutions that the parks can do beyond the, you know, the global efforts that we need, of course.

We'll need solutions from the parks. And it's going to be more, I remember I just, if you remember when I last time I rented out Disneyland and how just like, and Disney world, especially like Disney world, like there's not enough water stuff. There's not enough shade. I mean, like they're not prepared at all for this. I mean, it's gonna, so, I mean, it's yeah. Anyway, that's the premise of my ranch. It's just, it's going to get worse and parks are going to seriously need to make a heat plan, make a cold plan, like make a water plan. Like they're like, you just.

Philip (28:56.905)
it's gonna keep hitting you and it's gonna end up leading to potentially up to a full quarter of non-operable time. So, anyway.

Scott (29:05.142)
And again, I would have scoffed at this had I not spent five months in the Middle East. And they are now, they are now because they've learned. I mean, you know, the fate of the Bollywood Park is because it's an outdoor park. The fact that you've got seasonal parks or experiences or events that only happen in the cooler months. They don't happen over the summer.

Philip (29:12.828)
Mm-hmm. They're good at it there. I mean, it's all indoors. It's excellent.

Scott (29:31.958)
because they can't be outside during the summer. So, you know, we've talked about the full-time parks versus seasonal parks. Just imagine if in the next, you know, 50 years, the season shifts and you can't be open, you're an outdoor park, you can't be open in the summer months, you can only be open in the winter months, because that's the only time people can actually be outside and be around. It kind of goes back to, I think, one of the most basic things we can think of, and that is creature comfort of our guests.

we have to make certain that the guests are comfortable. No matter how good our content is, no matter which IPs we own, no matter how powerful we think we are, it comes down to creature comfort of our guest. And since we're out of time, I do just wanna wrap up just really quickly. Everybody's like, gosh, you guys have talked about such catastrophic things and they're so overwhelming and overreaching. But I really wanna kind of sum it all up in my opinion, and that is it comes down to the simplest of possible terms.

Continue to do good work that guests enjoy, and make certain that the guests are comfortable while you do it. In some cases, that may mean creating more water stations, more shade stations, more indoor activities. If you're starting from scratch and you're building a theme park, just imagine if you never had to worry about weather. Well, that's what they're doing in other places in the world. You see, we've all heard about the great...

Philip (30:49.901)
Yep.

Scott (30:54.87)
the great boon of park expansion, first in Dubai, then in Abu Dhabi, now in Saudi Arabia. There are other countries that are hot as heck, and they know that outdoor parks just simply don't work, so they're building them indoors. But all of this complexity, whether it's disinformation, misinformation, partial information, climate change, all of the things that we've talked about, it comes down to the simplest possible solution. Do a good product that people want.

to attend, that simple, and continue to find ways to make that happen within all of these challenges. Guys, I hope, well, first of all, I wanna thank you for being with us for another year. And as we enter 2024, on behalf of Philip and myself, we wish you all a great deal of prosperity, both as individuals and as companies, and we also hope that you continue to find peace and kindness amongst each other. On behalf of Philip Hernandez with Gantem Lighting and the Haunted Attraction Network and myself.

Scott Swenson from Scott Swenson Creative Development. This has been Green Tagged, Theme Park in 30, and thanks for being with us for another year. We'll see you next week.